Russian wheat harvest projections revised up

The Russian wheat harvest for the 2022-23 season has been revised up from earlier estimates and is expected to hit near-record levels, amid continued favourable weather conditions and all-time high acreages.

Russian 2022-23 winter and spring wheat production — excluding from the disputed region of Crimea, annexed from Ukraine in 2014 — is projected at 85.37mn t, against 84.74mn t and 80.6mn t expected in April and November last year, respectively, under the most recent estimates from Argus' agricultural advisory arm, Agritel.

Russian output for the coming year would be 10mn t higher than 2021-22, with the winter wheat harvest projected at a record 64.4mn t. This would be a result of particularly good crop conditions in the Centre and Volga regions, paired with close-to-average conditions in the Southern Federal District and a sharp rise in estimated harvest areas.

Overall wheat acreage is estimated at a record 28.5mn hectares (ha) this year.

While winter wheat sown areas were projected on par with year-ago levels, favourable weather conditions during the full plant development cycle should prevent significant surface losses at harvest in contrast to last year. This would result in an estimated record harvested winter wheat area of 16.6mn ha. The harvested area for spring wheat is expected to be marginally lower than last year.

Winter wheat crop yields are projected at 3.88 t/ha, up by 6pc from the five-year average and from 3.43 t/ha last year. Dry and hot weather in early June in southern Russia hampered the yield potential in the region, but overall yields are still expected close to record levels.

Spring wheat harvest is still one to two months away, with production subject to revisions depending on weather conditions in July.

By Angelika Melikian