Australia trims energy, mineral export receipts outlook

The surge in oil, thermal coal, LNG and metal prices this year is expected to spill over into the 2022-23 fiscal year to 30 June and weaken in 2023-24, according to the latest quarterly outlook report by the Australian government's commodity forecaster. But export revenue receipts from Australian shipments of energy and mineral commodities have been revised lower for 2021-22.

Australian energy and mineral export receipts are estimated to have hit a record A$404.5bn ($275bn) in 2021-22 from A$308.56bn in 2020-21. But this is A$20bn lower than the forecast contained in the previous March report because of workforce problems related to Covid-19 and bad weather. These have continued to curb Australian mine production and exports, especially coal, in recent months, the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) said in its June Resource and Energy Quarterly (REQ) report.

The downwards revision for 2021-22 is reversed for 2022-23 with Australian energy and mineral exports revised 10pc higher to A$419.4bn from A$381.17bn before falling to A$338bn in 2023-24.

The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the main factor driving the upwards revision to the forecasts for 2022-23 and 2023-24. The likelihood is that energy prices will remain higher than expected, as the exclusion of a significant amount of Russian oil, gas and coal exports from the global market leaves noticeable shortages, the REQ said.

Coal prices since the March 2022 REQ report have been pushed to record highs, with the outlook for prices of energy commodities to remain strong for longer than previously forecast as developed nations look for alternatives to Russian energy supplies, the OCE said. "While these high prices will persist for longer, they are likely to further accelerate the push towards renewable energy in the medium term," its REQ report said.

Global efforts to build energy and transport systems based on low emissions technologies are likely to keep base metal and critical mineral prices high. This will partly offset the impact of energy exports coming off their highs, as the sanctions on Russia sees world trade in fossil fuels reorganise, the OCE said.

Some of Russia's oil and gas exports are being diverted to China and India and as a result the world's two most populous nations are now buying fewer cargoes of non-Russian energy commodities, enabling them to be diverted to developed nations, according to the REQ. Higher prices will prompt a supply response now that it seems Russian exports will be banned by many developed nations for the foreseeable future.

Downside risks

The risks to the forecast for Australia's export earnings in 2022–23 and 2023–24 are skewed modestly to the downside. "Markets appear to have largely priced in the loss of some Russian resource and energy commodity output from world supply," the REQ said.

New outbreaks of vaccine-resistant Covid-19 strains also pose risks to the outlook. Especially if they occur in China, where small outbreaks are currently being met with aggressive suppression measures.

Resource exports are likely to show further significant growth over the outlook period, the REQ said. Economic growth and industrial production continue to recover among Australia's main trading partners, increasing demand for Australia's ferrous and non-ferrous metals. Production of electric vehicles and new energy technology will see growing demand for metals such as copper, aluminium, lithium and nickel.

The volume of energy exports is forecast to show similar growth during the outlook period to 2023-24, the OCE said.

By Kevin Morrison