Japan's lubricant demand will inch down in the April 2022-March 2023 fiscal year, predicts Japanese industry lobby group the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), pressured by reduced demand from the manufacturing industry.
Total domestic lubricant demand in 2022-23 is forecast to edge lower by 0.4pc from a year earlier to around 2mn kilolitres (35,000 b/d).
Consumption by the manufacturing industry is forecast to fall by 0.9pc to around 1.2mn kl in 2022-23. A resurgence of Covid-19 infections, a lack of raw materials and soaring fuel and raw material prices will slow production activity, the PAJ said.
Demand from the shipping sector is predicted to fall by 2pc to 99,000 kl. The country's coastal shipping volumes will fall because of surging raw material prices, outpacing the completion of newbuilds.
Lubricant demand from the auto industry is forecast to inch up by 0.1pc to 772,000 kl in 2022-23 but still below 2019-20 levels before the impact of Covid-19, pressured by car output cuts because of continued semiconductor and other auto parts shortages.
Japan's trade and industry ministry has changed its survey method for domestic lubricant output and consumption. The 2021-22 numbers are recalculated by the new method below.
| Japan lubricant demand (b/d) | ||
| 2022-23 outlook | 2021-22 results | |
| Cars | 13,304 | 13,287 |
| Ships | 1,706 | 1,723 |
| Industry | 19,904 | 20,076 |
| Total | 34,931 | 35,086 |
| Source: PAJ | ||
