Farmers in Canada's eastern Prairies expect a strong recovery for this year's canola harvest. Meanwhile, yields are expected in line with or below average in the drier west, where delayed crop growth is causing concerns about frost ahead of the harvest, according to findings from the Argus Canadian crop tour.
Canola yields typically vary significantly between regions depending on weather conditions. Farmers in western Saskatchewan and Alberta generally have seen drier weather and are expecting yields in line with or slightly below average. Meanwhile, farmers along the eastern route of the crop tour, which moved eastwards from Manitoba to Saskatchewan, are generally expecting yields in line with or above the long-term average, thanks to a wet start to the season, with some hoping for record harvests this year. But many are hesitant to contract large volumes for sale as weather patterns in the region are notoriously unpredictable and could still harm the crop outlook in the lead-up to harvest time.
Some of the current uncertainty is rooted in the need to strike a balance between a long flowering period and a timely harvest. Some farmers expected their fields to flower for six weeks, compared with four weeks or fewer in a typical year. A longer flowering period generally adds to yield prospects when considered in isolation. But Canada's growing season is much shorter than that of Europe, with some farmers getting only a 100-day window in which to grow and harvest crops without risk of frost.
A longer flowering period, therefore, is likely to compound delays caused by late planting after excess snow and rain along the eastern route of the tour earlier this year.
Pests can also delay the crop cycle. Flea beetles forced one farmer to resow canola even after rain had delayed his first attempt at planting. In contrast, producers that were able to avoid the insect this year are expecting markedly higher yields as a result.
Farmers eye long-term demand
Canola is widely viewed as a an attractive crop to grow this year, with farmers expecting exporters to offer high prices because of greater demand from Europe. Drought in France and Germany is likely to curb rapeseed yields this season and as such, boost the EU's reliance on imports from North America.
Farmers are also considering plans to build new crush plants in the centremost Saskatchewan. Several plants set to start up in 2024 could raise the local working crush capacity from about 10mn t/yr to 16mn t/yr.
But significant investment in the region comes at a point when canola yields appear to have hit a ceiling. Average yields rose rapidly in 2000-14 but have held fairly steady in the past seven years, with the exception of 2021's poor harvest.
As in other markets, Canadian farmers are under increasing pressure to improve efficiency as input costs surge. Some are choosing to grow canola and peas in the same field for the first time this year in a bid to save on nitrogen fertilizer application, while applying sulphur as another way to maximise fertilizer uptake in the plant. The same farms are also conducting precision soil testing to cut out sections in fields where crops typically give low yields.
And as with wheat this year, some farmers are significantly undersold at this point in the season. High crop prices last year enabled many farmers to invest in on-farm storage despite poor yields, consequently reducing their exposure to spot market movements. Many can now afford to hold back volumes in anticipation of rising prices, which in turn could delay seasonal export availability until later in the marketing year.
