US sees no Iran nuclear deal in near term

The US administration sees no prospect of reaching a nuclear deal with Iran any time soon, with Washington blaming Tehran for the lack of progress.

The latest discussions in the indirect US-Iran diplomacy, under the EU's auspices, were "clearly a step backward and make prospects for an agreement in the near term, I would say, unlikely," US secretary of state Tony Blinken told reporters on 12 September during a visit to Mexico City. Iranian officials seem "either unwilling or unable to do what is necessary to reach an agreement, and they continue to try to introduce extraneous issues to the negotiation that make an agreement less likely," Blinken said.

Washington and Tehran have exchanged proposals and counter-proposals in the weeks since the EU in late July presented what it called a "final text" for an agreement to lift US sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports in exchange for Tehran agreeing to curb its nuclear program. The earlier optimism in the US and EU diplomats' statements — "we are closer now than we were even just a couple of weeks ago," the White House said on 24 August — faded after Iran submitted its latest package of comments in early September.

Notionally, the US-Iran diplomacy aims to restore the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal in its entirety. But both Washington and Tehran have taken steps since former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 that have made it difficult, if not impossible, to fully restore the agreement in its original form.

A restored nuclear deal could realistically add around 1.3mn b/d of Iranian crude to global supply within six to nine months of its implementation. US sanctions in theory ban all oil exports from Iran, but some volumes continue to reach customers, mostly in China. Argus estimates that Iran exported around 750,000 b/d in June-August.

The European mediators in the Iran nuclear talks — France, Germany and the UK — on 10 September expressed "serious doubts" about Tehran's commitment to reaching a successful outcome, placing a question mark on a return of Iranian crude to the open market. Iran in response lashed out at the three European countries, urging them to take "constructive" steps towards finalizing a deal, instead of questioning Tehran's will and intent to reach a deal.

By Haik Gugarats