Rain threatens record Australian grain harvest forecast

Australia's near-record winter grain crop is under threat from heavy rainfall that is sweeping the east coast, damaging crops and making it impossible to access fields in some regions.

Agricultural bank Rabobank had forecast that Australia's harvest could be a near-record 61.9mn t in its 2022-23 Australian Winter Crop Forecast. But this was put together before the latest wet system that is moving up the east coast, bringing heavy rainfall to already saturated ground and full river systems and leading to flooding.

Farms from central Queensland to Victoria have recorded falls of between 400-600mm already this year and another 100-150mm has been predicted by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) for the next 10 days. The BoM beyond the short-term forecast warned that the current La Nina weather pattern, which brings above average rainfall to the east coast and slightly below average to the west coast, could be more damaging this year because of the water already in place from the past two years' of La Nina.

While it was too soon to quantify the impact of heavy rainfall and flooding in recent days in Victoria on the state's overall grain production, there has been significant impact on yields of low-lying crops with many under water in central and northern Victoria. But crops on higher country have fared better.

Rabobank forecasts wheat production of 35.5mn t, down by 2pc on last year but 47pc above the five-year average. It expects barley production to reach a record 14.8mn t and canola to reach a record 7.2mn t.

Australia will have ample grain for export if the forecasts are realised. But the ability to supply world markets will be limited by supply chain bottlenecks, both in regional areas and with capacity at Australian ports. The exportable surplus in Australia from the 2022-23 harvest is expected to reach 47.5mn t, while adding unsold 2021-22 crop could take the exportable surplus to 53.5mn t, according to Rabobank.

Australian grains firm Graincorp has received 120,000t of grain in Queensland so far this harvest from Queensland's Central and Western Downs, with harvesting yet to start on the Darling Downs. Graincorp's central Queensland facility at Gindie is already full.

Jessica Clarke