GHG pledges falling short of Paris goals: Report

Global commitments for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are falling well short of what is needed to keep countries on track to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement, according to a new report.

The current nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or emissions pledges, under the Paris climate agreement are enough to achieve only a 7pc reduction in global emissions by 2030, relative to 2019 levels, the World Resources Institute said in report released today. But at least a 43pc reduction is needed to keep efforts on a pace to avoid a 1.5°C increase in global temperatures, WRI said, citing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change findings.

"Countries are making incremental progress on strengthening their NDCs, but what we really need to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement is urgent transformational change," the group said.

While 80pc of the pledges have been updated since the adoption of the Paris accord in 2015, increasing the overall targeted GHG reductions by 5.5bn t compared with the previous plans, WRI said, countries need to reduce emissions by six times as much to stay on a path toward 1.5°C.

The vast majority of that improvement has come from large countries increasing the stringency of existing targets, rather than from adding new targets or expanding targets to cover new sectors or types of GHGs. The countries that have expanded the scope and coverage of their targets to date account for only 9pc of global emissions, according to the report.

The release of the report comes less than a month before the start of this year's UN climate talks, COP 27, which will be held in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt. A few countries have updated their pledges ahead of the talks, and Egyptian officials expect more to follow in the coming weeks.

Among the major emitters that increased their targets last year, the US pledged a 50-52pc reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, compared with a previous 26-28pc by 2025 commitment, while Canada said it would cut its emissions by 40-45pc from 2005 levels by 2030, replacing a previous 30pc reduction pledge. Japan said it would reduce emissions by 46pc from 2013 levels, compared with 26pc previously.

The EU in late 2020 set a new NDC target of a net reduction of at least 55pc by 2030 compared with1990 levels.

China, the world's largest emitter, last year made only modest updates to its pledge, saying it will achieve peak emissions before 2030.

The Paris agreement requires countries to update their NDCs every five years. The last updates were made last year, delayed by the Covid-19 pandemic. The next round of commitments is due in 2025.

The UN is scheduled to issue its own assessment of the current NDCs next week.

By Michael Ball