US HRC: Prices continue to fall, market weak

US hot rolled coil (HRC) prices resumed their fall this week as demand continued to weaken and lower prices were reported.

The Argus weekly domestic US HRC Midwest assessment fell by $26.50/short ton (st) to $709.75/st, while the southern assessment dropped by $29.25/st to $707/st.

HRC lead times in the Midwest were flat at 3-4 weeks.

Offers were reported between $680-750/st, with most between $680-735/st.

Market participants reported disappointment with the announcement last week from Cleveland-Cliffs' chief executive Lourenco Goncalves that his company will aim to increase quarterly production rates by increase of 8-11pc compared to the first three quarters of 2022, adding 300,000-400,000st of production. Both Cliffs and US Steel expect automotive demand to improve.

Demand has been a mixed bag, with Whirlpool announcing it cut its production by 35pc in the third quarter, and General Motors (GM) increasing its US auto inventories in the same period. Ford's sales fell sequentially, taking a hit from partially completed vehicle inventory.

Most service centers have reported demand is down, and are growing pessimistic as the market approaches the Thanksgiving holiday in the US later this month and the typical seasonal slowdown that occurs during it.

The market waited on the results of negotiations between integrated steelmaker US Steel and the USW for a new contract to replace the one that expired on 1 September. Many cite a potential strike as the only action that could turn around the market, save increased production cuts by steelmakers.

The Argus HRC import assessment into Houston increased was flat at $700/st ddp on limited import offers.

The spread between #1 busheling scrap delivered US Midwest mills and HRC fell by 6.2pc to $396/st.

A year ago the spread was $1,414/st as HRC prices were hovering near record-high levels and beginning to decline.

The Argus weekly domestic US cold-rolled coil (CRC) assessment dropped by $42/st to $888/st, as prices continued to correct downward while the hot dipped galvanized (HDG) coil assessment plunged by $52/st to $872.50/st. Price ranges were in a wide range between $900-975/st.

Lead times for CRC and HDG were both flat at 6 weeks.

The CME HRC Midwest futures market was down in the last week, with the futures prices in backwardation through March. December prices dropped by $30/st to $675/st, while January prices fell by $19/st to $687/st. February prices were down by $21/st to $699/st, and March prices dropped by $28/st to $703/st. April prices fell by $20/st to $720/st, while May prices dropped by $30/st to $715/st.

Plate

The Argus weekly domestic US ex-works plate assessment increased slightly by $2.50/st to $1,620/st.

Lead times were flat at 4 weeks.

The plate delivered assessment increased by $12.25/st to $1,673.25/st.