Cop 27: UAE net zero plan implies deeper emissions cut

The UAE has laid out a pathway to achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 that implies an even deeper reduction in emissions by 2030 than envisaged under the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) released in September.

The September update envisioned a 31pc reduction in the country's GHG emissions by 2030, versus a 2016 baseline, up from a targeted 23pc cut in the country's original NDC.

In volume terms, this would have involved a reduction in emissions of 93.3mn t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) to 207.7mn t of CO2e versus the UAE's "business as usual" forecast, which anticipated emissions of 301mn t of CO2e in 2030 assuming a "moderate annual economic growth rate based on historical trends."

But based on the new net zero roadmap presented at the Cop 27 UN climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh this week by the country's climate change and environment ministry, the UAE is aiming to reduce emissions by 49pc by 2030 and by 60pc by 2040. Moreover, these targets are based on a 2019 rather than a 2016 baseline, and imply even lower outright emissions in 2030 of 178mn t CO2e than under the September NDC update. The net zero plan also foresees emissions falling to 87mn t CO2e by 2040, before the country reaches its net zero goal in 2050.

The ministry provided little detail on the net zero target, or the policies it will implement to achieve it, although it did say that it expects the biggest reductions to come from buildings and industries. One UAE source said the country is likely to issue a formal new update to its NDC early next year, incorporating these new targets, and an update of its net zero pathway at next year's Cop 28 UN climate conference, which is due to be held in the UAE, in Dubai.

The UAE has previously said it plans to reach net zero emissions by boosting clean energy production from sources such as solar and green hydrogen, as well as via waste management, energy efficiency and green mobility. The country will also look at carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) and small modular nuclear reactors to achieve its goals.

By Jacqueline Echevarria and Nader Itayim