Mexico turns corner on climate goals

Pressure from the US appears to have convinced Mexico to up its game in its efforts to reduce GHG emissions, write Jacqueline Echevarria and Rebecca Conan

Mexico is making a reluctant return to the international climate change mainstream, committing to more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions this week at the Cop 27 UN climate conference in Egypt.

The shift represents a marked change of direction for President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador following his early support for oil and coal. Mexico is now aiming to reduce GHG emissions by 35pc by 2030 from business as usual, as announced by foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard at a joint press conference in Sharm el-Sheikh with US climate envoy John Kerry.

Mexico arrived at Cop 27 with a nationally determined contribution (NDC), agreed in 2020, of reducing emissions by 22pc by 2030 from a 2005 baseline. That target was controversial, as the government had that same year raised the level of its business-as-usual emissions scenario, effectively increasing its projected CO2 emissions in absolute terms.

Mexico announced shortly after Cop 27 got under way that it was revising that 2020 NDC to a more aggressive target of 30pc by 2030 against a 2000 baseline. But it appears to have been persuaded to go even further as a result of US pressure. Kerry welcomed the decision, saying it marks "a huge, significant shift from where Mexico was last year" at the Cop 26 summit. The US is committed to "work hard to make sure the resources are available" for Mexico to achieve its goal, Kerry said, without specifying how Washington will help.

Mexico plans to redouble its efforts in clean energy to achieve its target, supporting investments in hydropower, geothermal, wind and solar. It plans to add 40GW of renewables capacity over the next eight years, Ebrard said, adding that electromobility will also play a key role. But none of this will be cheap, he noted — Mexico will need an additional $48bn to make its commitments a reality, with financing from the public and private sectors.

Leaky promises

Mexico may also need to tighten its control and monitoring of methane emissions. New data released this week show that nine satellite-detected methane leaks from natural gas infrastructure in Mexico over the past three years were much more extensive than government estimates.

Mexico is a signatory to the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30pc by 2030 from 2020 levels. State-owned oil giant Pemex has committed to reduce emissions from its operations, and plans to publish a methane emissions mitigation plan for its onshore oil and gas operations in the first half of next year. The company also announced this week that it will work with the US Environmental Protection Agency to develop a methane reduction programme as part of joint US-Mexico efforts to reduce GHG emissions — potentially the start of the US support pledged by Kerry.

Pemex has failed to reduce gas flaring despite a $2bn investment to reduce methane leaks and increase gas use. The firm flared 491mn ft³/d (5bn m³/yr) of gas in the third quarter, up by 15pc from the previous quarter, albeit 30pc down on the year. Flaring increased following the launch of 36 fields as part of a drive to revive domestic production and reduce imports.