Baltic gas consumption down more than 60pc in October

Gas consumption in the Baltics and Finland in October was more than 60pc lower on the year and was far less sensitive to temperature.

Consumption across the four countries totalled 1.59TWh last month, down by 61pc from 4.04TWh in October 2021. Consumption in Estonia fell less steeply than in the other countries, but the annual decline was still significant (see October consumption table).

Adjusted for temperatures, October consumption was still well below that a year earlier.

In Finland, the weather was actually colder last month than in October 2021, but consumption was far less responsive to weather. If demand had responded to temperatures as it did last year, average monthly demand would have totalled 41.8 GWh/d, far above last month's actual 17.3 GWh/d.

In Latvia, average temperatures in October were slightly higher than a year earlier. Based on that, average consumption would have been expected to decrease to 15.9 GWh/d, but instead fell to 9.3 GWh/d.

Efforts to substitute gas with alternative fuels for heating, particularly in Estonia and Lithuania, could leave gas consumption this year even lower than last winter.

That said, weather is not always the most important driver of consumption in the Baltics. For instance, most Lithuanian consumption derives from large industrial consumers, namely ammonia producer Achema. That firm announced in late October that it planned to resume production after having operated at reduced capacity for much of the year owing to high gas prices. This is likely to drive consumption in Lithuania, regardless of temperature.

Cumulative consumption across Finland, Estonia and Latvia in January-October fell to 19.1TWh, down by almost 44pc from 34TWh a year earlier. Finnish consumption accounted for the largest portion of this, despite falling by 52pc on the year to 10TWh from 20.7TWh. Latvian and Estonian consumption were down by 36pc and 22pc, respectively (see cumulative consumption table). Cumulative consumption for Lithuania was not available at the time of writing.

By Brendan A'Hearn