‘Long and difficult journey’ still lies ahead

The draft text is more notable for what it leaves out than what it includes, write Caroline Varin and Georgia Gratton

The Cop 27 UN climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, is going into overtime as negotiations continue, slowed by the lack of agreement between developed and developing nations on the contentious issue of loss and damage.

Loss and damage refers to the destructive effects of global warming, and is a priority for many vulnerable countries experiencing extreme climate-related events such as storms and rising sea levels. Officials from a number of developing countries have expressed growing frustration that some developed nations are resisting calls to include a loss and damage fund in the final agreement — something that is now threatening to undermine the outcome of the summit. Negotiators still face a "long and difficult journey to the end of this process", EU executive vice-president and lead climate negotiator Frans Timmermans warned.

A draft text, released on 18 November by the Egyptian Cop 27 presidency, reiterates many of the goals of the Glasgow Climate Pact agreed last year. It goes a step further in mentioning both the "phase down" and "phase out" of unabated coal-fired power. But it remains a draft, with both options still on the table.

The text did not mention a broader fossil fuel phase out, which India pushed for at the start of the summit. Pan-African Parliament president Fortune Charumbira said that the issue of fossil fuels cannot come "before other major commitments are delivered". Fossil fuel use will remain a reality until "we have financed the alternatives", he said.

The draft text did not take a tougher line on the 1.5°C global warming limit nor outline specifics related to the creation of a new loss and damage facility, simply leaving a placeholder for the latter. It repeated a request made at Cop 26 for all countries to revisit and strengthen their 2030 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — or emissions reductions strategies — to align with the UN's 2015 Paris Agreement.

Around 25 countries updated their NDCs before Cop 27, and a few more did so during the summit, but this is still not enough to meet the 1.5°C target. But leaders of major economies meeting at the G20 summit this week in Bali said they "resolve to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C". This was viewed as encouraging by many at Cop 27 and could help when it comes to agreeing a final text.

Mitigating factors

The EU sees increased action on mitigation as a key component, if an agreement on loss and damage is to be reached. Timmermans has proposed the creation of a loss and damage fund for "the most vulnerable" countries, but said that it should only be implemented if global emissions reduction targets are tightened. "Mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage all go together," he said. The fund will only be agreed on if serious emission mitigation measures are included, Timmermans said.

Decisions on which countries should contribute to the fund should take into account current economic situations, he said. "If we discuss financing we should be talking about the world in 2022, not the world in 1992," Timmermans said — in reference to the year the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was established and the fact that some countries' economies have developed significantly over the past 30 years. Canada's environment and climate change minister Steven Guilbeault said on 18 November that large emitters such as China, Saudi Arabia and Qatar should contribute. And Ireland's environment, climate, communications and transport minister Eamon Ryan has floated the idea of contributions from oil and gas companies, as well as levies on air tickets and shipping containers, to go towards a loss and damage fund.