Opec+ JMMC recommends no change to output policy

The Opec+ coalition's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) has recommended ministers stay the course and make no change to output policy when they meet today, according to two delegate sources.

The recommendation comes amid lingering concerns over the outlook for the global economy, but also several key uncertainties on both the supply and demand sides of the equation going into next year. A major source of uncertainty is what impact the EU's embargo on Russian seaborne crude imports and the G7's $60/bl price cap on Russian shipments to third-party countries will have on supply. The embargo and price cap come into force tomorrow, 5 December.

Besides the uncertainty over Russian supply, Opec+ ministers are also having to take into account weak economic data from China, which, along with central bank action to combat inflation, have put downward pressure on oil prices in recent weeks, wiping out most of the gains that followed the group's October decision to lower its output target by 2mn b/d from November through until the end of 2023.

In the run-up to today's ministerial meeting, delegates have been telling Argus that the group is coalescing around keeping production targets unchanged at November-December levels until there is more clarity in the market.

The JMMC recommendation requires approval from ministers, who are due to meet at at 13:00 Vienna time (12:00 GMT).

By Nader Itayim, Ruxandra Iordache, Bachar Halabi and Kuganiga Kuganeswaran