Ukraine may continue to lose barley market share

Ukraine may continue to fall down the rankings of the leading feed barley exporters in the 2023-24 marketing season, according to preliminary estimates by Argus' agricultural analytics arm Agritel.

Ukraine was the world's third-largest barley exporter in 2021-22 and is expected to be ranked sixth this marketing season (see chart). But the country may lose further share of the global barley market in 2023-24, with limited supplies of about 1mn t projected to be available for export

Balance sheet

Agritel's current projections for Ukrainian barley exports in the 2023-24 marketing year ending 30 June are based on expected domestic consumption of about 3.2mn t and overall barley supply of 4.8mn t. The latter includes 500,000t of beginning stocks, given that 2.4mn t of product are expected to be exported this marketing season.

Ukrainian barley exports have totalled almost 2mn t so far this marketing year, according to customs data, with the pace having slowed in recent months. Muted demand from China, slow operations through the Black Sea grain corridor and concerns over its extension after 19 March have limited demand for product. If 2022-23 exports fall short of projections, this could potentially increase beginning stocks and total supply of Ukrainian barley in the 2023-24 marketing year.

Production could fall to about 4.4mn t in 2023-24, from around 5.8mn t this season, according to Agritel. The projected drop is driven by an expected decrease in harvested areas to about 1.5mn hectares (ha) — from 1.7mn ha a year earlier — and lower yields at about 3 t/ha, compared with 3.47 t/ha in 2022-23 (see charts).

Areas

Agritel projects that Ukraine's total barley planted areas could reach about 1.5mn ha in 2023-24, including about 600,000ha of winter crop and 900,000ha of spring crop. The estimate for winter barley area is based on the latest November figure of 612,000ha from Ukraine's agriculture ministry. As for spring crop areas, Agritel expects they will be slightly down from last year's level of 950,000ha.

Some Ukrainian producers interviewed by Argus indicated they have no plans to plant spring barley or other spring grains for the 2023-24 crop. Instead, they will extend oilseed crop acreages, primary those for sunflower seeds. "We will plant more sunflower seeds, as we cannot see any reasons for sowing spring grains, because of their unpredictable or low profitability," one farmer from the Dnipropetrovsk region — one of major spring barley producing regions in Ukraine — told Argus.

But some market participants are more optimistic about spring barley areas for the 2023-24 crop, expecting they could surpass 1mn ha. "Spring barley brings fast money for farmers, as its vegetation period is very short — you can plant it in spring and harvest crop after only three months. And even if there is no demand from traders, or prices are not attractive, you can use barley to pay for your land lease," one of the biggest seed distributors in Ukraine told Argus.

Spring barley areas theoretically could increase in the western regions of Ukraine — Vinnytsa and Ternopil — given simpler export logistics owing to the close proximity of these regions to EU countries, or special programmes for malting barley producers.

Yields

Agritel's forecast of Ukraine's barley yield of about 3 t/ha in 2023-24 is based on an expected increase of spring barley share in total areas — spring barley yields in Ukraine are traditionally about 20pc lower than those of winter barley — as well as reduced application of fertilizers owing to high prices and farmers' lack of funds. "Without fertilizers, spring barley yield may be only about 2-2.5 t/ha," a Poltava-based farmer told Argus.

An optimistic scenario from some market participants suggests that the barley yield in the next season may hit the five-year average of about 3.35 t/ha but will be lower than this season's level of about 3.5 t/ha. Coupled with a year-on-year increase in spring barley area, this could result in 5mn-5.5mn t of production in 2023-24, allowing Ukraine to export about 2mn-2.5mn t of product, a few large Ukrainian exporters also told Argus.

By Alexey Yeromin

Leading global barley exporters mn t

Ukraine barley planted areas mn ha

Ukraine barley yields t/ha