February Baltic gas consumption falls 25pc on the year

Gas consumption in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania fell by just under 25pc in February compared to the previous year, despite colder weather across all three countries.

Consumption across the three countries totalled 2.5TWh last month, down from 3.3TWh in February 2022. Consumption in Lithuania and Estonia fell steeply, but Latvia actually increased its consumption on the year, for the first time since August (see February consumption table). Finland's transmission system operator Gasgrid Finland has not yet published consumption figures for January-February.

The fall in consumption was in spite of outright average temperatures in all three capital cities holding lower this February than in 2022 (see temperature table), showing that Baltic gas consumption has become less responsive to temperature, particularly as several district heating firms have switched to using fuel oil this winter. Consumption in the Baltic states and Finland dropped by 40pc over all of 2022 compared to the previous year.

Industrial demand for gas may be slow to return, despite regional supplier Eesti Gaas saying that several of its customers that had switched away from gas were now returning to it as prices fell. Achema, a Lithuanian ammonia producer and the largest consumer in the region, was hoping to restart production in February but once again delayed it, mostly due to weak downstream demand for fertilisers. Achema still expects to resume production by the end of the first quarter, although "production will not resume until the situation changes", it said.

Power-sector gas burn stepped up significantly in February compared to the previous year, with Latvian output averaging 350MW compared to just 67MW in 2021, while Lithuanian output rose to 23MW from 10MW. Finnish gas-fired output was also up to 311MW from 261MW.

Falling consumption was also despite the average price on the GET Baltic exchange falling to its lowest since 2021, to an average of €58.82/MWh, 15pc lower than in January and 28pc lower than February 2022. A total of 1.3TWh of gas was traded on the exchange in February, nearly double the previous February's volume. 1TWh of this was traded on the daily market, and 271GWh on the monthly market, GET Baltic said, with the Lithuanian market making up the majority of sales at 730GWh.

By Brendan A'Hearn