Iran expects its crude exports to keep rising

Iran says it expects its oil exports to continue rising in the new year that began this week, even in the face of deadlock in talks with Washington to lift economic sanctions, carrying on a trend that has been underway for at least two years.

Speaking on state radio today, oil minister Javad Owji reiterated his words from earlier this month — that Iran's crude and condensate exports had recently risen to the highest since former US President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions on Tehran in 2018, months after it exited the Iran nuclear deal.

"In 1401 [which loosely corresponds to March 2022-March 2023], Iran exported 190mn bl more than it did in 1399 [March 2020-March 2021], and 83mn bl more than it did in 1400 [March 2021-March 2022]," Owji said. In daily terms, this represents an increase of 227,000 b/d over one year, and 521,000 b/d over two years.

Owji again did not give outright export figures.

But the year-on-year increases are largely in line with figures from data analytics firm Vortexa, which has also tracked a rise in Iranian oil exports over the past 24 months. It said these rose to as high as 1.3mn b/d in the fourth quarter of 2022, pushing the full-year average up to 978,000 b/d from 390,000 b/d in 2020.

Owji said he expects this recovery to continue, at least over the coming 12 months.

"We forecast our exports will reach a new [post-sanctions] record this year," he said.

On the down low

On the whole, Iranian officials have been cautious not to disclose too much data on its oil production or exports since the country fell back under US sanctions. Making such figures public would be "harmful to the national interest," former oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh once said.

But minister of economy and finance Seyed Ehsan Khandouzi earlier this week not only echoed Owji's statement on exports reaching their highest for "at least two years," but also said they had "surpassed the earlier [post-sanctions] high of 1.3mn b/d." This was in reference to a surge in exports at the end of last year.

Separately, Iran's Expediency Council member Gholamreza Mesbahi-Moghaddam said the country has been selling "more than 1mn b/d of oil" over the past few months, a marked improvement on levels under the previous government of Hassan Rohani, who left office in mid-2021.

"In the current government, we have been selling more than 1mn b/d of oil, while during the previous government we were selling just 300,000 b/d ꟷ and our cargoes were clear for the Americans to see," Mesbahi-Moghaddam said. "Today, those exports are not easy for the Americans to see and track, and what is more, we have added new countries to the ranks of our buyers."

By Nader Itayim