Baltic gas consumption stays low in March

Combined gas consumption in the Baltic states and Finland in March dropped by nearly 23pc on the year.

Combined consumption fell to just over 3.9TWh, from 5.1TWh in March 2022. Demand fell steeply in Lithuania and Finland, more than offsetting a second consecutive month of demand growth in Latvia owing to much higher gas-fired power generation (see consumption table).

Latvian gas-fired generation increased to 239MW in March from just 13MW a year earlier (see gas-fired power table). Gas-fired output ticked higher in Finland and Estonia as well, but dropped by almost half in Lithuania. Gas-fired generation climbed across the region on some colder days, particularly in Finland in which much of the heating demand is electric.

Average temperatures in all three Baltic capitals increased year on year in March, weighing on heating demand (see temperature table).

And weather-adjusted demand has dropped in the region over the past year, partly because several district heating firms switched to using fuel oil, which has made gas demand less responsive to the weather. Consumption in the Baltic states and Finland dropped by 40pc in 2022 from 2021 levels.

Industrial demand for gas may be slow to return, despite regional supplier Eesti Gaas saying several of its customers were returning to using gas from alternative fuels because of lower prices.

Achema, a Lithuanian ammonia producer and the largest consumer in the region, was hoping to restart production in February but has continued to delay, mostly owing to low downstream demand for fertilisers. "Production will not resume until the situation changes," it said.

The average price on the GET Baltic exchange dropped to its lowest in 18 months, to €49.24/MWh from €58.82/MWh in February, and was 80pc lower than at its peak in August 2022.

Despite the year-on-year decline, consumption ticked up on the month in Lithuania in particular, to 1.26TWh from 920GWh in February.

Flows reconfigure in April

Flows on the Balticconnector have switched direction this month for the first time since May 2022, when Finnish state-owned Gasum was cut off by Russian state-controlled Gazprom.

Balticconnector flows flipped towards Estonia on 3 April for the first time since late May 2022 and averaged 19 GWh/d on 3-16 April. This followed the arrival of the first full cargo at Finland's Inkoo LNG terminal, after the facility was unused in the first quarter.

And the 155,000m³ Solaris is scheduled to deliver a cargo to Inkoo today loaded at the US' Corpus Christi plant.

Gasum reoriented its gas supply routes after Gazprom halted deliveries under their long-term contract, triggered by Gasum's refusal to switch to payments in roubles. Since then, the Balticconnector has continuously flowed towards Finland.

And regional gas-fired generation is poised to decline this month. Alongside a seasonal drop in heating demand, Finland's 1.6GW Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant on 16 April started full operations.

By Brendan A'Hearn