Eurobob gasoline liquidity rises in August

Trade in Argus Eurobob gasoline barges totalled 293,800t in August, up by 27pc on the month driven by a rise in non-oxy trade. Oxy trade slipped marginally.

Eurobob non-oxy trade rose by 67pc to 157,200t, from a four-month low in July. Eurobob oxy trade fell by 1pc to 136,600t.

The August number took non-oxy trade to just over 1mn t in the January-August period, a 51pc — or 339,800t — increase year on year. Oxy trade for the period totalled just under 1.1mn t, a 24pc — or 348,800t — reduction in the same time.

Non-oxy's share of total trade was 54pc in August, and its share in the first eight months of the year was 48pc. The split of Eurobob trade in 2022 was 60:40 towards oxy. But non-oxy barge trade is rising relative to the overall as the rollout of E10 gasoline — a finished grade gasoline with up to 10pc ethanol — continues across Europe. Eurobob non-oxy is the blendstock used to make E10, which has become increasingly widespread as biofuels mandates strengthen.

In May, Argus announced that after a period of consultation and market feedback, the Eurobob non-oxy barge price would become the key price determining European gasoline value from 1 January 2024, reflecting change in the market, with Eurobob oxy barges being calculated as a differential to the non-oxy price.

Gasoline prices trended upwards in outright terms in August. Eurobob oxy prices averaged $975.80/t, up from $879.61/t in July. Margins to North Sea Dated crude also trended upwards to $30.99/bl, and peaked at $35.47/bl on 25 August — a near 14-month high — compared with $25.49/bl in July.

A series of outages and planned maintenance trimmed supply in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region and lent support to gasoline values. Demand held firm in northwest Europe, particularly in Germany where refinery shutdowns led to an increase in the amount of gasoline pulled out of ARA. While export demand fell, with arbitrage economics difficult to work on paper, participants said flows continued to the US because of low stocks there and a steep backwardation structure in Europe.

The largest buyer of non-oxy barges in August was Varo with 54,000t. It had also been the largest buyer of non-oxy in July, with 39,000t. TotalEnergies sas the second largest buyer with 41,000t, followed by Trafigura at 20,000t. The largest seller of non-oxy was Shell at 116,200t. It had also been the largest seller in July at 46,000t. The second largest seller was Glencore at 21,000t, followed by TotalEnergies at 8,000t.

The largest buyer of Eurobob oxy barges in August was TotalEnergies with 62,000t. It had also been the largest buyer in July at 53,000t. The second largest buyer of oxy in August was Glencore with 22,000t, followed by Varo with 18,500t. Trafigura was the largest seller of Eurobob oxy barges in August, parting with 53,500t. Trafigura sold 2,000t in July. Shell was the second largest seller of oxy at 28,000t, with Sahara third at 20,100t.

By Jonah Sweeney