Latin America and the Caribbean's energy-related CO2 emissions could rise by 2pc by 2030 and by 11pc by 2050 under current policies, despite less use of fossil fuels and more renewable energy, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in the region are estimated to rise from 1.66bn t at present to 1.85bn t in 2050, the IEA said in its first Latin America Energy Outlook, which explores mostly two scenarios: one which takes into account current policy settings and a second which assumes all pledges and targets are achieved in full and on time — including climate goals established by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement.
The increase in CO2 emissions comes despite an estimated lift in the share of renewables in the energy mix from 28pc in 2022 to over 40pc in 2050.
In the power sector, the share of low-emissions will rise from 63pc in 2022 to over 80pc in 2050, under current policies, with more than two-thirds of the increase coming from solar PV and wind, the IEA says.
The share of unabated fossil fuels will fall to 18pc by 2050, from 36pc in 2022. Oil and coal use for power generation will fall sharply, while demand for natural gas will increase by one-quarter to 2030, peak by around 2040 and fall back in 2050.
Alternate scenario
But under a scenario in which pledges and targets included in NDCs are achieved, regional emissions are estimated to decrease by almost 10pc in 2030 and to below 800mn by 2050. The combined share of wind and solar PV in the electricity mix will rise from 11pc currently to nearly 30pc by 2030 and exceed 60pc by 2050.
Oil supply in the region will increase from 2022 to 2030 under both scenarios, reaching around 11mn b/d in the current-policies scenario and 10mn b/d in the NDCs and net zero scenarios, the report says. Exports will increase by nearly 2mn b/d in both of these scenarios.
Oil production will continue to rise, reaching nearly 12mn b/d by 2050, under current policies, from 8mn b/d in 2022.In the second scenario, oil supply will decrease by more than 35pc from 2030 to 2050. All producers will cut output because of lower demand for oil both domestically and internationally.
Future fuels
The IEA also projects growth in the production of biofuels and other advanced fuels.
The two scenarios project growth in modern bioenergy demand compared with 2022. But there are differences in the underlying mix of fuels and uses. Under current policies, the traditional use of biomass will decrease by around 15pc by 2030, whereas in the climate targets scenario it will drop by half.
Conversely, demand growth for liquid biofuels is stronger in the climate targets scenario, driven mostly by road transport and in part by new fuels for use in shipping and biojet kerosene in aviation. The share of modern bioenergy in the energy mix increases by 3pc in the region by 2030 in the current-policies scenario, but more significantly considering climate pledges and NDCs.
Hydrogen production consumes around 1.5pc of the region's total energy supply. Under current policies, hydrogen production in the region will increases by almost 40pc from its 2022 level by 2030 and will double by 2050. It will increase by two-thirds by 2030 and six-times by 2050 if all climate pledges and NDCs are met.
Lower-emissions hydrogen will increase from almost zero to 5pc of total hydrogen production in 2030 and 25pc in 2050, under current policies, but most of this is still fueled by unabated natural gas. It will account for more than 25pc of total production in 2030 and more than 85pc in 2050, if NDCs are met, the IEA says.
