Ukraine's wheat production in the 2024-25 marketing year (July-June) is set to fall to the lowest level since 2012-13, mainly because of lower planting acreages.
Argus pegs Ukraine's wheat output at 20.16mn t in the next season, down from 22.2mn t reported by the agriculture ministry in the 2023-24 marketing year, and well below the five-year average of 25.87mn t.
Wheat acreages continue to decline. Argus estimates them to fall to 4.55mn hectares (ha) in the 2024-25 season, down from 4.65mn ha in 2023-24. A possible increase in spring wheat planted and harvested areas does not significantly offset a decrease in winter wheat acreages, which are unlikely to surpass 4.2mn-4.3mn ha.
Argus estimates the average wheat yield in the 2024-25 season at 4.43 t/ha, down from 4.79 t/ha in 2023-24 but above the five-year average of 4.26 t/ha. Farmers this year started autumn sowing in dry conditions, delaying crop emergence, unlike last year when heavy rain slowed planting at the start of the season.
Beneficial rains and mild weather at the end of the winter sowing season helped speed up wheat development and improve crop conditions. They are now estimated to be broadly in line with previous years' averages for most producing regions, apart from some areas in the south.
Meanwhile, a key question for the next season is wheat quality, as a decrease in fertilising and a warm winter have already affected quality in the 2023-24 marketing year, with a high share of feed wheat in the harvest.
