EIA raises US crude supply, price view for 2024, 2025

US crude production in 2024 and 2025 will be higher than previous forecasts, but tight inventories will likely support benchmark prices, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today.

Domestic petroleum and other liquid fuels production will average 13.21mn b/d this year, the EIA said Tuesday in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). That is up from the previous forecast by 20,000 b/d and is about 46,000 b/d higher than the EIA projection made a year ago.

Domestic production in 2025 is expected to rise to 13.72mn b/d, representing a 70,000 b/d upward revision compared to the EIA's forecast last month. The outlook for US output next year has increased each month since the EIA initiated 2025 forecasts in January's STEO.

Domestic consumption forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were unchanged from the previous outlook at 20.4mn b/d and 20.6mn b/d, respectively.

A revised increase to the EIA's global production forecast was met with a comparable increase in global demand. Production in 2024 is projected to be 102.65mn b/d, up by 48,000 b/d from last month's forecast. Consumption was increased by the same amount and is now expected to average 102.91mn b/d across 2024.

The outlook for global production in 2025 was bumped up by 44,000 b/d to 104.61mn b/d while the consumption forecast for 2025 rose by 45,000 b/d to 104.26mn b/d.

The EIA increased its 2022 global consumption figures which in turn contributed to part of the increase in its latest demand view, as historical data helps inform the short-term forecasts.

Crude price forecasts for both WTI and Brent benchmarks were lifted for the second straight month, supported by the EIA's "expectation of strong global oil inventory draws this quarter and ongoing geopolitical risks."

The EIA expects WTI in 2024 to average $83.78/bl, up by $1.63/bl from the March STEO and $6.10/bl higher than February's STEO.

The forecast for WTI in 2025 was increased by $2.18/bl to an average of $82.48/bl across the year.

Brent prices for 2024 and 2025 saw comparable upward revisions to $88.55/bl and $86.98/bl, respectively.

By Brett Holmes