A shift to the right among voters may challenge some of the bloc's more controversial climate policies, writes Dafydd ab Iago
The new European Parliament that emerges after elections on 6-9 June is unlikely to start rolling back large chunks of EU climate and energy goals, but their implementation may suffer from increased political uncertainty and a shift to the right.
The European Greens' lead candidate, Bas Eickhout, says an alliance of right-wing and far-right parties"threatens" the future of the Green Deal — the policies aimed at achieving the EU's goal of greenhouse gas (GHG) cuts of 55pc by 2030 against a 1990 baseline, and carbon neutrality by 2050. A member of the environment committee since 2009, Eickhout has handled some of the most contentious issues, including phasing out the internal combustion engine. "We have already seen how the conservative and far-right parties... started dismantling key elements of the Green Deal, such as the Nature Restoration Law," Eickhout says, with some polls projecting the Greens will lose up to a third of its 72 members.
And new alliances and blocking majorities resulting from the EU elections —built on right-wing, liberal and conservative opposition to decarbonisation policies — will affect how carefully the European Commission formulates the legal drafts to implement the bloc's 2040 climate and energy agenda. The commission had previously talked of a 90pc cut in GHG emissions by 2040.
Achieving blocking minorities for energy and climate legislation, or measures restricting imports of Russian hydrocarbons, might still prove difficult because of divisions among far-right parties. Following the expulsion of Germany's Alternative for Germany from the Identity and Democracy group, Spanish Vox's top candidate for the parliament, Jorge Buxade, admits that creating a "big group" of far-right parties will be an uphill struggle. Buxade, a far-right member of the conservative ECR group, says those on the right should "focus on five or six points that unite us", and clearly lists "repealing the Green Deal" as a priority.
Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who is eyeing reappointment by EU states and approval by the parliament, has appeared willing to build a parliamentary majority around her centre-right European People's Party (EPP), the largest in parliament, also hinting at support from Italy's far-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, albeit not without backlash.
Von der Leyen still says climate neutrality by 2050 is "cast in law", but Eickhout fears that she could seek further support from far-right parties that are expected to gain seats from the EPP and the liberal Renew Europe group. Days away from elections, polls also point to slight gains for radical left parties, taking seats away from the second-largest group, the centre-left socialist S&D of former commission vice-president and Green Deal architect Frans Timmermans.
Group thinking
But the impact on policy from any shift to the right could be watered down by the need to prioritise. In the Netherlands, the largest coalition, the PVV, toned down manifesto demands, including one to abolish climate funding. The new coalition now talks of promoting green growth, reducing harmful emissions and investing in sustainable energy. That pragmatic approach may win over even further to the far right, forcing compromises in order to achieve majorities in parliamentary votes.
While polls indicate a similar number of seats for the EPP as in 2019, it now seems to be hedging its bets, saying Europe must not "deindustrialise on this ambitious path". Likewise, the ECR still wants implementation of existing legislation, but says any new regulation should only come when funding is secure. And the conservatives might only support a reconstituted European Commission in return for a review of the "more problematic" Green Deal objectives, notably the phase-out of the internal combustion engine and strict rules on low-emission fuels.
