Forecasts for French wheat and barley areas for 2024-25 crops have shrunk further, and yields are projected below year-ago levels, according to French agriculture ministry agency Agreste.
Agreste projects France's milling wheat yields in 2024-25 at 6.99 t/hectare (ha), down from 7.38 t/ha for the 2023-24 crop. Areas are forecast at 4.2mn ha — down from 4.4mn ha in the agency's June report. This would give a national crop of 29.7mn t, compared with 35.1mn t a year ago.
Agreste notes that its forecast could still change, with harvest only just beginning in most regions. Average yields recorded for milling wheat in France over the past 10 years was 7.30 t/ha, but in 2016 the yield fell to its lowest in two decades, at 5.37 t/ha.
Agreste expects the regions Pays de la Loire and Nouvelle-Aquitaine to record the steepest year-on-year drops in yields. Hauts-de-France and Normandy (the two northernmost regions), as well as the Centre-Val de Loire (to the south of Paris) are also expected to fall short of 2023-24 levels. The only regions where Agreste expects a slight increase are Brittany and northeastern France.
Areas of durum wheat meanwhile are revised upwards to 240,000ha. Together with yields forecast at 5.4 t/ha, this would give a 1.3mn t crop, in line with last year but 9pc below average.
As for barley, for which harvesting is now well under way, Agreste projects total output at 11.3mn t in 2024-25, down by 8pc on the year and 5pc below the previous five-year average. The figure is based on 1.25mn ha of winter barley areas — down from 1.29mn ha in the June report — and yields at 6.4 t/ha, down by 9pc on the year. But this figure may well change — feedback from producers over the past two weeks suggests an even steeper drop in winter barley yields from last year and the five-year average.
Agreste expects France to harvest 3.94mn t of rapeseed based on yields averaging 2.95 t/ha. The projected output is down by 8pc on the year but 4pc above average. Agreste kept forecast areas largely unchanged from its June report, at 1.34mn ha.
As for spring crops, Agreste made the following forecasts for areas by crop:
- Spring barley at 577,000ha, up from 515,000ha forecast in June but well below market expectations
- Corn at 1.6mn ha, up from 1.44mn ha forecast in June and up by 6pc on the five-year average
- Sunflower at 800,000ha, down from the previous projection of 820,000ha but 6pc above average.
