The UK advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) has outlined a "feasible" pathway towards a 87pc reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2040 for the country, from a 1990 baseline.
This is "an ambitious target", but it is deliverable, provided action is taken rapidly", the committee said today. Electrification and "low-carbon" electricity generation would make up 60pc of the emission reduction.
The CCC recommends a level of 535mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) for the UK's seventh carbon budget, over 2038-42, including emissions from international aviation and shipping. A carbon budget is a cap on emissions over a certain period. They are legally binding in the UK, with the CCC required to advise the government on the levels outlined.
The energy transition "will make the UK economy more resilient, by reducing dependence on volatile international fossil fuel markets", the CCC said. It sees net energy imports falling from 867TWh in 2025 to 202TWh in 2050, with the cost of achieving net zero emissions at around 0.2pc of UK GDP annually on average. Upfront investments will lead to savings, it said. The CCC expects the private sector to contribute much of the investment needed, but noted that "policy is needed to provide confidence".
Ramping up renewables
"UK-based renewable energy provides the bulk of generation in a larger, future electricity system", the committee said. Its pathway envisages a six-fold increase in offshore wind, to 88GW of capacity in 2040 from 15GW in 2023, while onshore wind and solar power capacity reach 32GW and 82GW, respectively, by 2040. It notes the need for nuclear power, energy storage and grid upgrades.
The committee also maps a scenario where the industrial sector — often high-emitting and difficult to decarbonise — uses electricity to meet 61pc of its energy demand, "up from around 26pc today". This would allow "UK manufacturers to benefit from global demand for low-carbon goods", the CCC said.
For shipping and aviation, the CCC sees a role for "low-carbon fuels", including hydrogen and bioenergy. But the latter is "constrained by the availability of sustainable sources", while the use of hydrogen is limited, the committee said. The fuel has no role in heating buildings and "only a very niche, if any, role in surface transport".
Carbon removals plays a role in emission reduction, but carbon capture and storage (CCS) "is limited to sectors where there are few, or no, alternatives". CCS could be used in industrial sectors or alongside hydrogen, it noted. The CCC saw a role for bioenergy with CCS, and direct air capture, although all carbon capture technology would require developing CO2 transport and storage infrastructure and finalise business models, it said. It also flagged the need for nature-based carbon sequestration, such as new woodlands and peatland restoration.
The proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) significantly increases in the committee's pathway, to three-quarters of cars and vans and almost two-thirds of heavy goods vehicles being electric by 2040 — up from 2.8pc of cars and 1.4pc of vans in 2023. The falling cost of batteries will allow EVs "to reach price parity with comparable [gasoline] and diesel cars between 2026 and 2028", the CCC said. The pathway has around half of UK homes using heat pumps by 2040, from 1pc in 2023.
The UK government must now propose, by 30 June 2026, a level for the seventh carbon budget, which parliament will then approve or reject. The government has in recent months stuck to CCC advice, setting out a national climate plan which pledged an 81pc emissions cut by 2035, in line with CCC recommendations.
