Field maintenance will cut North Sea Forties crude loadings to just 90,000 b/d in August — down 43pc from July and the first time exports of the benchmark grade have fallen below 100,000 b/d since June 2021.
The August loading programme contains only four 700,000 bl cargoes, down from the seven shipments that are scheduled for export in July.
The decline is driven by maintenance at Buzzard, the largest field contributing to the Forties blend. Operator CNOOC plans a three-week shutdown starting mid-August. The field has already been producing at reduced capacity since last week because of separate maintenance work.
Forties often sets North Sea Dated as the cheapest of the benchmark grades, and has done so in more than half of June's trading sessions. Tighter availability could support Forties' value and lift the Dated price.
Exports of Brent, another benchmark grade, are set at 45,000 b/d in August across two cargoes — the first time this year that more than one Brent cargo is scheduled in a single month. Only one Brent cargo is due to load in July, and none in May after the sole scheduled shipment was deferred to June.
This limited liquidity undermines the reliability of Dated. If prices for light sweet crude rise when no Brent cargoes are within the assessment window, Dated would be set using an outdated Brent price.
August loadings of fellow benchmark grade Oseberg are set at three cargoes, or 68,000 b/d, unchanged from July.
Outside the Dated basket, the final July shipment of medium sour Norwegian grade Grane has been deferred into August, according to the latest loading programme. As a result, Grane loadings will average 158,000 b/d in both July and August, across seven cargoes.
