Annual demand for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) could be reduced by as much as 7.5mn t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 2050 if Australia adopted policy changes to develop a low-carbon liquid fuels (LCLF) industry, according to a report this week.
Encouraging companies to reduce direct scope 1 emissions through changes to the federal safeguard mechanism and/or voluntary adoption would drive the development of an Australian LCLF market and free up ACCUs for use in sectors that cannot achieve on-site decarbonisation due to technical challenges, state-owned green investment fund Clean Energy Finance (CEFC) said in a report authored by consultancy Deloitte.
Under its central case scenario, which would involve constraining the use of carbon offsets, CEFC said that a 7bn litres/yr LCLF market could be created by 2050, abating up to 12mn t CO2e in 2040 and 20mn t CO2e in 2050 as a result. Annual ACCU demand across six sectors covered by the report — mining, aviation, rail, heavy freight, maritime, and construction — could be reduced by around 6.8mn t CO2e by 2050 in that case, to 2.4mn t CO2e/yr.
Demand for ACCUs could reach as low as 1.7mn t CO2e by 2050 under an accelerated scenario, which would involve EU-style mandates for LCLF.
Demand for ACCUs would be around 9.2mn t CO2e/yr under the base scenario, which assumes a market-led transition in which carbon prices remain low and LCLF demand is driven by a small group of customers willing to pay significant premiums to reduce their scope 3 emissions.
30pc cap under the safeguard mechanism
The central case scenario assumes a hypothetical government intervention to cap the use of ACCUs under the safeguard mechanism at 30pc of the baseline for liquid fuel-related emissions.
Currently, there is no limit to the number of ACCUs or safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) that facilities can use to manage their excess emissions under the scheme, but those that surrender carbon units equivalent to 30pc or more of their baselines need to publish a statement explaining why they have not undertaken more on-site abatement activities. The central case scenario also assumes the removal of baseline adjustments for trade-exposed baseline-adjusted facilities.
Adopting a minimum 70pc direct on-site decarbonisation would trigger a positive supply-side response, driving significant technology deployment and competition between pathways and feedstocks, the CEFC said. Stakeholders claim that the current safeguard mechanism and ACCU pricing are not enough to drive early LCLF uptake, the report said.
Policy intervention is needed to accelerate the bridging of the cost gap between the LCLF production cost and the ACCU price, which is currently not expected to happen until the 2040s, the report said.
A market-led transition, on the other hand, would lead to greater pressure on the ACCU market, with up to 7.35mn t CO2e of ACCUs needed to meet demand in 2035 and 15.5mn t CO2e in 2050.
ACCU supply reached an all-time high of 18.78mn in 2024 and is forecast at 19mn-24mn for 2025. But the industry needs to boost future issuances to address an expected shift in the supply-demand balance within a few years.
