Ukrainian gas injections have increased since the start of July, supported by brisker imports.
Net injections climbed to 54.2mn m³/d on 1-7 July, from 44.5mn m³/d in June, and were as much as 55.7mn m³ on 7 July — the most since late-September 2023 — according to GIE transparency platform data.
Brisker imports have boosted storage injections. Deliveries to Ukraine rose to 26.7mn m³/d on 1-7 July from 18mn m³/d in June, with most of this sent to underground facilities courtesy of the customs-free warehouse regime.
The gradual recovery of domestic gas output after Russian attacks might have contributed to the faster build. Domestic production was 51.8mn m³/d in June, up from 48.9mn m³/d in May, data from consulting agency ExPro show. Output was as high as 52.9mn m³/d late last month.
Assuming injections in line with 1-7 July for the rest of the month, Ukraine would head into August with 9.8bn m³ in storage.
Production could exceed consumption by 2.1bn m³ in August-October, provided output is in line with 52.9mn m³/d and consumption does not exceed the highest for each corresponding month in 2022-24. These volumes could further support the build.
But Ukrainian consumption has been higher at points in 2025 than in previous years after Russia's full-scale invasion, according to latest available data. Consumption was higher in February and May, which might have been driven by cold weather.
Even if Ukraine is able to inject 2.1bn m³ of its own production, it would still need to import at least 1.3bn m³, or 14.3mn m³/d, in August-October to meet the minimum start-of-November target of 13.2bn m³.
Earlier this week, capacity for gas transportation to Ukraine was booked at annual auctions. Firms bought 46.3 GWh/d — of 73.2 GWh/d on offer — of exit capacity towards Ukraine at the GCP Gaz-System/UA TSO point on the Polish border for the 2025-26 gas year, but no corresponding Ukrainian entry capacity.
The energy ministry said last month that Ukraine will need imports this winter to technically support the gas system following the end of Russian transit flows, without providing details.
