Extreme heat in Turkey this week drove electricity demand to record hourly levels that strained the grid, with gas-fired generation playing a vital role in meeting additional power use.
High temperatures across major Turkish cities this week sharply increased cooling demand. Temperatures reached a daily high of 39°C in Istanbul, 43°C in Izmir and 37°C in Ankara on 23 July. These exceeded the 10-year average for the same period by 5-7°C. Such heatwaves are typical in Turkish summers, but traders noted that this one affected the entire country simultaneously, amplifying the impact on electricity demand. Total power generation rose steadily from 43.6GW on 21 July, to 45.2GW on 22 July, 46.1GW on 23 July, and 46.9GW on Thursday.
Some producers said hourly demand of 58.3GW on Wednesday marked a historic peak. But data from the Epias transparency platform showed demand peaked at 54.7GW around 20:00 that evening. Producers noted that these figures may be updated over time for greater accuracy. In any event, national electricity production even reached 56.2GW on Thursday at the same hour, according to platform data.
Dry weather since the start of this year has led the grid operator to limit hydropower generation to preserve drinking water for the later summer months. As a result, hydro contributed only a sixth of the power mix over these four days.
The combination of high temperatures, low wind and limited solar output during evening peak hours significantly increased pressure on the grid, according to some traders. During this period, gas-fired generation covered nearly a third of total demand. Gas-fired output rose from 12.4GW on 21 July to an average of 14.6GW for 22-24 July.
Even a further slight rise in demand at peak hours could have made outages unavoidable, according to some traders. And they view preserving the free market structure, where price caps are limited and producers can operate more efficiently and profitably with proper planning, as the main defence against such situations.
Turkey recorded 35.3bn m³ of gas demand between 1 January and 20 July, including transit volumes and injections, according to the latest energy ministry data. The power sector accounted for only 18pc of this overall, consuming 7.7bn m³, largely owing to high household heating demand during winter. But data from regulator EPDK — typically published with a two-month delay — shows direct consumption by gas-fired plants about 10pc lower.
Turkey's gas-fired generation hit historic highs in July and August 2024, with daily demand reaching 43mn m³/d and 48mn m³/d, respectively, according to EPDK data. Gas-fired output averaged 10.1GW in July and 11.3GW in August 2024. Persistently high temperatures could result in the power sector continuing to set new gas consumption records this year.
Friday's forecasts show that temperatures across Turkey will remain above seasonal norms for the next two weeks, although not as extreme as the recent heatwave, at only 2-4°C higher than normal. Daily highs were projected to average around 33°C in Istanbul, 35°C in Ankara and 38°C in Izmir into the first week of August. If wind output remains low alongside water concerns limting hydropower output, gas-fired generation is likely to stay strong in the coming days.
