Mexico's trade balance swung to a narrow deficit in July from a surplus the prior month, as imports outpaced exports while trade volumes grew.
Mexico recorded a narrow $17mn deficit in July, swinging from a $514mn surplus in June, statistics agency Inegi data show. Exports totaled $56.71bn, while imports reached $56.73bn.
Total trade volume rose by $5.9bn to $113.4bn in July from the prior month, with imports up by 6pc and exports up by 5pc.
The July balance reflects the deficit in oil-related products narrowing to $2.14bn from $2.47bn in June, as well as the surplus in non-oil trade narrowing to $2.13bn in July from $2.98bn the previous month.
Non-oil exports climbed to $54.8bn from $52.5bn, led by manufacturing exports, which rose to $52.4bn from $49.7bn. Yet, auto-related exports slipped to $15.9bn from $16.3bn. Manufacturing accounted for 65pc of Mexico's industrial production in 2024, with autos alone contributing 16pc.
US tariffs have weighed on manufacturing exports, particularly of autos and parts. Inegi reported non-oil exports to the US over the January-July period was higher by 5.9pc than during the same seven months in 2024, though auto exports were down 4.4pc in the same annual comparison.
The US postponed a planned increase in the flat tariff rate on Mexico to 35pc from 25pc, holding the effective tariff rate near 5.2pc in June, according to Fitch Ratings. This compares with 30.7pc for China and a 13.7pc global average. Fitch estimates Mexico's effective tariff rate could rise to 9.5pc if the hike takes effect.
Mexico's agricultural exports slowed to $1.51bn in July from $1.71bn the prior month, and non-oil mining exports slowed to $965mn from $1.15bn. Agricultural shipments were likely hit by a new 17.1pc tariff on fresh tomatoes after the US withdrew from a suspension agreement on an anti-dumping probe, prompting Mexico to set minimum export prices.
Oil-related exports rose to $1.87bn in July — $1.36bn in crude and $511mn in refined products — up from $1.46bn in June. Crude export volumes climbed to 692,000 b/d from 520,000 b/d but remained below the 817,000 b/d exported a year earlier.
Mexico's crude export mix averaged $63.13/bl in July, up $0.10/bl from June but down $8.75/bl from the year-earlier level.
