Indian urea stocks increased to 4.9mn t at the end of September, albeit from a comparatively low base, driven up by another month of constrained sales.
Stocks remain lower than a year earlier, at nearly 30pc below the 6.8mn t held at the end of September last year, the latest provisional data show. But countrywide inventories have increased from estimates of as low as 3.5mn t at the end of August.
Stocks in India have picked up because of another drop in sales in September, following a similar pattern in August. The reduction is likely to be because of tight availability of urea in the country rather than any material drop in demand from farmers, with the strong monsoon rains outpacing initial forecasts.
Urea sales were likely to have been around 2.5mn t in September, down from nearly 3.1mn t in the same month last year. Production is largely understood to have been broadly stable on last year at 2.43mn t.
Provisional data for imports have yet to emerge, but a series of tenders in quick succession will have eased downward pressure on stocks in recent months, with Indian firms buying 5.57mn t across three tenders in July-September. Importer RCF will close another tender on 15 October, seeking to buy around 2mn t of urea, with cargoes due to load by 10 December.
