Mexico's finance executives' association IMEF kept its 2025 GDP growth estimate unchanged in October but warned that a newly approved injunction law has further deteriorated the country's investment climate.
IMEF held its GDP estimate at 0.5pc in October, after the estimate rose from 0.1pc in July to 0.4pc in August and 0.5pc in September. IMEF also maintained its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 1.3pc for a fourth consecutive month.
While IMEF did not lower estimates for 2025 or 2026, growth is expected to remain "very poor," said IMEF head Gabriela Gutierrez on 21 October, citing uncertainty from Mexico's constitutional reforms and US trade policy.
To reactivate investment, Gutierrez added, Mexico must secure a successful renewal — and likely renegotiation — of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement and create conditions that encourage, rather than discourage, private investment. "So far, there has been no success on either front," she said.
IMEF presented data showing that gross fixed investment (GFI) — public and private spending on construction, machinery and transport equipment — shifted from growth above 20pc in 2023 into negative territory after constitutional reforms were approved in September and October 2024.
The group argues those reforms have damaged investor confidence, particularly the judicial changes requiring the election of judges and the energy reforms that dissolved autonomous regulators and gave the energy ministry control over nearly all aspects of the sector.
GFI has remained negative, contracting at annual rates of 7–8pc from April-July, the most recent months with data. The trend "coincides with the central bank's latest expectations survey," IMEF said, "where 43pc of respondents believe it is a bad time to invest, 48pc are unsure and only 9pc see it as a good time."
IMEF warned that investment conditions are further threatened by the reform to Mexico's injunction law, which orders judges to weigh injunctions against "social interest" and "public order." Combined with an explanatory memorandum defining the public interest as that of the state itself, IMEF said the reform makes it "practically impossible for individuals or firms to defend themselves against arbitrary government acts."
IMEF kept its year-end inflation forecast unchanged at 4pc. Annual CPI rose to 3.76pc in September from 3.57pc in August, while the group maintained its 2026 inflation forecast at 3.8pc. It expects the central bank to cut its policy rate to 7pc by year-end and projects the peso to close 2025 at Ps19.00/$1, compared with Ps20.8/$1 in April.
