As Brazil prepares to host the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem on 10–21 November, Mideast Gulf oil producers, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Iraq, will aim to safeguard their energy export economies — touting their role in global energy security — while pursuing the green transitions at home essential for economic diversification.
Cop 30 is tasked with weighing up updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — climate plans — for 2035, scaling climate finance, and operationalising the Cop 28 call to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewables and double energy efficiency made in the UAE in 2023. But Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states are seeking a "just transition" that avoids any suggestion of oil and gas production caps, while securing funding and technology transfers.
GCC states and Iraq, which together hold 40pc of global oil reserves and 25pc of natural gas reserves, want to prioritise fast-tracking climate finance, calling for $1 trillion/yr by 2030 in grants, not loans, to support adaptation in heat and water-stressed economies. They will be seeking $100bn in Just Energy Transition Partnership-style deals — for funding coal phase-outs and renewables, as seen in Indonesia and South Africa — to potentially include Oman and Bahrain. They seek multi-donor bank reform and swift disbursements through the World Bank-hosted Loss and Damage Fund. Dedicated finance for desalination, cooling, agriculture and grid-hardening in extreme heat will also be a priority, with calls for fast-tracked concessional funds tied to Cop 30's "planning to action" mandate.
For the GCC and Iraq, gas will remain a "transition fuel", and will continue to be promoted as a coal-displacing, reliable back-up. GCC states will be likely to resist a blanket approach for a fossil fuel "phase-out", focusing on "unabated" emissions reductions through methane cuts and carbon capture and storage (CCS). They seek clear Paris Agreement Article 6 rules, enabling carbon credit trading to monetise "high-integrity" credits. Qatar, home to the Global Carbon Council, aims to standardise baselines for the project's global market integration. Methane abatement is a potential flashpoint. Committed to near-zero methane and zero routine flaring by 2030, GCC producers want these efforts funded as implementation, not new pledges, and building on the Cop 28 oil and gas decarbonisation charter and global methane pledge, they seek financing to scale monitoring, reporting and verification.
Oil production Belemwether
Diplomatically, the GCC states see an opportunity. Brazil, which plans to expand its own oil output to 2030, will have to hedge its position in pushing for a fossil fuel phase-out. This might give the Arab bloc space to advocate a "dual-track" approach, balancing renewables and efficiency with stable oil and gas supplies for global energy security. When their rising oil and gas capacity is invoked versus touted net-zero targets for 2050-60, they are likely to position themselves, yet again, as the bridge between the global energy security and climate ambition.
The UAE is the only GCC country that has submitted a new NDC, and their ambitions are highly likely to lag the 1.5°C pathway's 43pc global emissions cut by 2030, compared with 2019 levels. They will continue to champion CCS, efficiency and growing renewables rather than agree on oil and gas production output cuts. They are likely to prioritise implementation over new commitments and caution against policy shocks through semantics. For Brazil and the UNFCCC process, the question is whether this pragmatism anchors consensus or slows fossil fuel demand decline. The GCC's calculus is clear — sustain revenue streams for economic diversification while its oil and gas underpins global energy security in the transition.
