Countries' climate plans, if fully implemented, would lead to an increase in global temperature of 2.3-2.5°C above pre-industrial levels — lower than the rise indicated last year, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said today, 4 November.
But the plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), are not "enough to avoid a serious escalation of climate risks and damages", UNEP said. The lower end of the temperature range is dependent on countries implementing unconditional and conditional climate plans — the latter are reliant on external support.
If countries were to implement only current policies, the rise in temperature would be up to 2.8°C above the pre-industrial average, compared with 3.1°C last year, UNEP found. Its data last year suggested a temperature range of 2.6-2.8°C above pre-industrial levels, if countries met climate commitments made then for up to 2030.
The "most optimistic scenario, which combines full implementation of conditional NDCs and all net-zero pledges", results in a projected temperature rise of 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels, UNEP found. This is the same as last year, and meets the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the rise to "well below" 2°C, although it misses the agreement's more ambitious 1.5°C threshold.
The report takes in new NDCs — the third round, covering up to 2035. Although this round so far shows progress on emissions reduction, not enough countries have submitted new NDCs to form full conclusions, UN climate body UNFCCC said in late October.
New NDCs and "updated policy projections" account for around 0.2°C of the cuts in estimated temperature rise, UNEP said. Methodological updates make up the rest, but "about 0.1°C of this progress will be cancelled out once the withdrawal of the US NDC is accounted for", UNEP said.
"This means that the NDCs have barely moved the needle", it said.
Achieving the 1.5°C goal sought by the Paris accord "remains possible" on an end-century timescale, UNEP found, but it would require emissions reductions of 55pc over 2019-35 in "a challenging political climate". Full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs would cut emissions by 12pc and 15pc respectively in 2019-35, although these figures will change once the US' NDC is withdrawn, UNEP found.
Action and leadership from the G20 group of nations "will be pivotal", UNEP said. The group's emissions — excluding those of the African Union — account for 77pc of the global total and rose by 0.7pc in 2024, it said. Several members — including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Indonesia, Russia and the UK — have submitted new plans for 2035. But the group is collectively "not on track" to hit 2030 goals and must "urgently and dramatically increase action to slash emissions", UNEP said.
UNEP pointed to progress made in the 10 years since the Paris Agreement was signed. Global temperature rise predictions have fallen to 2.3-2.5°C above pre-industrial levels, from 3-3.5°C when the agreement was adopted.
The Paris accord "has been pivotal in lowering projected global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions", and has shown that "drastically cutting emissions is both possible and desirable", UNEP said.
The UN Cop 30 climate summit starts on 10 November in Belem, Brazil. Countries are likely to discuss a response to the latest round of NDCs, and leaders may announce new targets or plans, if their governments have not already done so.
