Brazil may increase its demand for ethanol and biomethane (RNG) by 2040 thanks to increasing decarbonization targets in the transport sectors, according to a study by Brazil-based LCA consulting
Brazil's ethanol demand may more than double to 52.2bn l (900,980 b/d) by 2040, driven by larger export flows and increasing share in other biofuels production, such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and low-emission marine fuels, the study, which was requested by low-carbon mobility institute MBC Brasil, said. LCA also projects that both aviation and maritime transport ethanol demand in 2040 could consume the equivalent of up to 80pc of 2025 ethanol consumption in motor fuels, which includes a 30pc mandate blend into gasoline (E30).
LCA also projects that the aviation and maritime transport sectors could account for up to 80pc of this year's ethanol consumption.
Sugarcane crop yields will double in the next 15 years — driving sugarcane-based ethanol output — while corn-based ethanol production may more than triple to 25bn l by 2040, LCA said. Ethanol can be used either for SAF's alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) production route and as an alternative for methanol to fuel vessels.
As for biomethane, the waste-based biofuel may replace up to 70pc of diesel in the heavy vehicle transport segment by 2040, with 120mn m³/d. Brazil's mines and energy ministry recently submitted a 238,500 m³/d target for its first-ever biomethane mandate in 2026.
Gas producers and importers will have to blend biomethane into natural gas to comply with a target to reduce greenhouse gases by 0.25pc/yr. But the study considered a 1pc mandate blend in the following years to estimate a demand of 8.5mn m³/d of biomethane by 2034, excluding the voluntary market.
Brazil's diesel-fueled trucks would still represent 85pc of the national heavy vehicles fleet, regarding its increasing biodiesel mandate blend, while biomethane and battery electric vehicles would add up to 15pc by 2040, according to the study. Electric fleets will require R20.7bn-24.9bn ($3.8bn-4.6bn) in infrastructure investments to reach an estimated increase of 807,000 electric recharging stations by 2040.
Brazilian public policies should include selective taxes for lower-emission vehicles and biofuels to accomplish its climate targets in both energy and transport sectors, MBC and LCA said. Another solution would be to expand markets for national biofuels. That can be done with deals such as the Mercosur-EU agreement and bilateral agreements with Mexico.
