Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc is pressing ahead with plans to lift crude production capacity to 5mn b/d by 2027, undeterred by this year's lower oil prices and the significant capital required to sustain output from ageing fields.
Adnoc reported in May 2024 that its maximum sustainable capacity had reached 4.85mn b/d, up from 4.65mn b/d previously. Upstream chief executive Musabbeh al-Kaabi gave the same figure this week on the sidelines of the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi.
Adnoc's long-term investment programme remains intact, and onshore and offshore drilling activity is "extremely busy" as the company ramps up brownfield expansions to complete the final stretch of its capacity-build plan, al-Kaabi said.
"Raising capacity to 5mn b/d will require massive investment to sustain," he added, noting that some of Abu Dhabi's legacy fields will need continual infill drilling and redevelopment to offset natural decline.
Al-Kaabi framed the strategy as both a commercial and policy priority, echoing projections made by Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber in his Adipec opening speech that global oil demand will remain above 100mn b/d through 2040 and beyond.
"Because Abu Dhabi crude is among the lowest-carbon barrels globally, it's our responsibility to ensure secure and affordable supply," al-Kaabi said.
He also underscored the importance of maintaining spare capacity as a strategic buffer, despite the financial cost of holding back supply. "It's in our interest to ensure the market is stable whenever there is demand for low-carbon crude. Stability and predictability are great for investment," he said. In a high oil price environment, "it takes only two or three years of maximum production to recover all costs", he added.
The maximum sustainable capacity of the 22-member Opec+ alliance is under renewed scrutiny, with the group due to begin updating each member's production baseline to calculate targets for 2027.
Opec+ agreed in September on a mechanism to assess members' maximum sustainable capacity, but the process is expected to be contentious, as countries often claim inflated figures to secure higher output quotas. The UAE has already secured two upward quota revisions in 2022 and 2023 to reflect its growing capacity.
Given the pace of capacity gains in the last few years and how close Adnoc is to its target, the company may announce it has reached 5mn b/d capacity ahead of schedule.
