The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to 2035 — climate plans and targets submitted to the UN — have made little difference on curbing temperature increases, according to a Climate Action Tracker (CAT) report released today led by the NewClimate Institute.
The CAT report's '2030 and 2035 targets scenario' estimates the climate targets submitted to mid-November keep global warming at 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels, the same as last year.
The Paris Agreement signed 10 years ago seeks to limit the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C.
In the CAT report's 'pledges and targets' scenario — which includes 2030 and 2035 NDCs and longer-term net zero targets — the outcome has slightly worsened to 2.2°C from 2.1°C previously, mostly as a result of the US withdrawal from the Paris accord.
"The US' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has had really devastating effects at weakening the global momentum, and the impact of it is not fully reflected in the numbers," NewClimate Institute policy analyst Ana Missirliu said.
The report shows that emissions under current NDCs are projected to reach 53-57 Gt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2030 and 48-52 Gt CO2e in 2035. This is above the levels consistent with a 1.5°C pathway, which would require emissions to fall to 27 Gt CO2e by 2030 and 21 Gt CO2e by 2035, according to the NewClimate Institute.
"Almost none of the 40 governments the CAT analyses have updated their 2030 target, which is critical to keep warming levels below 1.5°C, nor have they set out the kind of action in new 2035 targets needed to change course," the report said.
The report also found that some major emitters' targets, including the EU, fail to translate into a step-up in ambitions. The EU has introduced the use of international carbon credits to reach some of its recently agreed target to cut GHG emissions by 90 by 2040, from 1990 levels.
"We have a lot of countries, and quite a lot of G20 countries, including Brazil and China, which won't have to put forward more policies to achieve their targets," Missirliu said. China has submitted a 2035 target the country can already achieve, she added. Other countries, such as the UAE, have very ambitious targets but lack the policy or policy signals to show that they can achieve them, she added.
Global emissions continue to grow year-on-year, and will grow again next year, NewClimate Institute said. In China, the world's largest emitter, and India, where renewables are expanding significantly, projected emissions have gone up compared with the previous report, as energy demand and fossil fuel use continues to grow.
The gap between countries' targets and the 1.5°C pathway is widening. "Even if all current NDCs and long-term targets were fully implemented, global emissions in 2035 would still be more than double the level required for 1.5°C compatibility," the report said.
"The longer we wait, the more the gap grows," NewClimate Institute policy expert Kilas Hohne said. "At the heart of this crisis of inaction is the continued expansion of fossil fuel production and consumption," the report said. Countries in 2023 agreed to a call to transition away from fossil fuels but many are still expanding coal, oil and gas.
The current growth rate for renewable energy is not yet aligned with the global call to triple renewables by 2030, from 2019 levels, but a growing number of countries are accelerating their transition, including Chile, Colombia, India, Ethiopia, Morocco and Switzerland, according to the NewClimate Institute.
