Commitments made by countries would lead to an 8pc cut in emissions of the greenhouse gas methane by 2030, falling well short of a 30pc reduction target, but current legislation would see methane emissions continue to rise, according to a report from the UN environment programme (UNEP).
The global methane pledge (GMP), established in 2021 at the UN Cop 26 summit, commits its 159 signatory countries to cut methane emissions by 30pc from 2020 levels by 2030. Methane emissions have contributed to 30pc of the increase in global temperatures since the industrial revolution, according to energy watchdog the IEA.
But pledges made by governments in their nationally determined contribution (NDC) or methane action plan (MAP) roadmaps — documents outlining their efforts to reduce emissions in the context of international climate efforts — would lead to a fall in methane emissions to 310mn t in 2030, down by 8pc from 352mn t in 2020.
But this refers only to pledges or plans, rather than actual legislation in force. Under current legislation, methane emissions are set to continue rising, reaching 369mn t in 2030, 5pc above 2020. But this is a fall from expected growth to 383mn/t in 2030 when the GMP was established.
Some countries have identified emissions-reducing actions in their NDCs. But specific policies or timelines are often missing, UNEP said. And only "a handful" of countries have adopted comprehensive targets in line with the 2030 GMP goal, UNEP said. That said, the number of countries which included policies targeting methane in their NDC submissions had reached 127 as of June 2025, or 65pc of participants in the UN Cop climate summits, up from 92 countries in the previous round of NDCs in 2020.
The fossil fuel sector offers potential for rapid emissions cuts, with 72pc of cuts expected from current legislation out to 2030 concentrated in the sector. And innovative voluntary methane abatement initiatives have proliferated since the establishment of the GMP, UNEP said. But policy development, country participation and implementation all fall short.
Delivering the GMP pledge would require a nine-fold increase in financing over 2022 levels, UNEP said. But access to capital is not always the main barrier. Inadequate policy incentives, data availability, and institutional capacity must often be tackled at the same time.
The [gap in ambition](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/27492940 between NDCs and the efforts needed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement, is one of the themes of the Cop 30 summit currently underway in Belem, Brazil.
