US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Kazakh wheat and barley production forecasts have been revised up from July projections, but are still down on the year as unfavourable weather pressures yields and quality.
Rain has reduced crop quality in key areas near the border with Russia, FAS said. The wheat yield forecast for the nearly complete Kazakh harvest rises to 1.27 t/ha from the 1.11 t/ha cited in July's report, but is still down on the year. And forecast exports for 2025-26 (September-August) rise to 8.6mn t from 7.5mn t in July, but this is still down by 1.6mn t from 2024-25, at least partially because of the drop in yield.
FAS notes that Kazakhstan's wheat export market seems to be growing. Wheat has been sold to Vietnam and flour to the US for the first time this year, and opportunities will open in Pakistan in the coming year on the back of a co-operation deal between the countries.
Barley
Kazakh barley production has also been hampered by weather. Quality is lower and yields have fallen to 1.55 t/ha from 1.68 t/ha last year, although this is still up from July's forecast of 1.3 t/ha. The full-year 2025-26 (July-June) production forecast has been revised up by 400,000t to 3.4mn t. This is still below 2024-25's 3.8mn t, but above 2023-24's 2.6mn t.
As with wheat, the weather is likely to mean a greater proportion of the barley being deemed feed grade.
USDA has forecast exports at 1.7mn t for 2025-26, up from 1.3mn t in July, but down on the year, at least partially because of the expected reduction in production.
