High offtake season continues to draw down Indian DAP inventories, but these have stayed above a comfortable threshold of 2mn t because of robust imports, and could end the year around that level.
India started November with 2.31mn t of DAP and produced 363,000t over that month, provisional data show. Importers received 1.16mn t in November — the most for any month in over three years and well above the 562,000t November average in 2020-24 — as they were keen to avoid a repeat of the run-down that left stocks at just 1.1mn t at the start of 2025. Importers could afford to line up cargoes because the government is covering losses they would have made if selling at the maximum retail price and only receiving the nutrient-based subsidy.
DAP sales rose to 1.54mn t last month, during peak application season, according to provisional data. This is slightly below November's 1.62mn t five-year average.
Sales outpaced supply and DAP inventories dropped to 2.16mn t, Argus data show. But high imports prevented further drawdowns, and stocks opened December above the 1.43mn t level reported a year before.
DAP offtake typically slows in December. Taken together, December's provisional opening stocks, 403,000t of imports according to Argus line up data, plus production and offtake figures in line with December's 2020-24 average could mean that India ends the year with 1.96mn t of DAP.
Indian TSP inventories rose by 146,000t over November to start December at 541,000t, provisional data show. TSP imports hit a 2025 high of 232,000t, Argus line-up data show, while offtake totalled 86,000t. Another 109,000t is expected to arrive in December — the balance of the volume secured under a deal with Moroccan producer OCP that expires at the end of the year.
