US fertilizer industry group The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) expects US president Donald Trump does not intend to reinstate reciprocal tariffs on imported Canadian fertilizer products after previously commenting he could.
Earlier this week when asked what action the Trump administration may take to bolster domestic fertilizer output and the US's reliance on imports from countries like Canada, Trump relayed that the US could impose severe tariffs "if we have to" and with those tariffs the US could be making its own fertilizer "very soon."
"Based on information that we have at this time, including conversations with USDA officials, these comments do not indicate a change in current policy," TFI said Wednesday.
"An open, fair, predictable, and transparent trading environment with key partners like Canada is vital to maintaining a stable, affordable supply of the crop nutrients US growers rely on," TFI noted.
Following Trump's comments, several market participants agreed that it seemed unlikely tariffs would be reimposed on Canadian fertilizer imports given their status of being USMCA compliant and that tariffs would do little to improve the near-term fertilizer production outlook.
The fertilizer market is "numb" to these kinds of comments, one distributor said.
On a nutrient basis the US imported 98pc of its potash in 2023 and about 85pc of those imports came from Canada, according to TFI. The US imported 33pc of its urea consumption on a nutrient basis in 2023; 15pc of imports came from Canada, according to estimates from TFI. For ammonia, the US imported 12pc of its consumption, 50pc of which came from Canada. Also, 35pc of US ammonium sulfate imports came from Canada in 2024, according to US Census Bureau data.
