W Australia's gas surplus outlook strengthens: Aemo

The Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) is forecasting a bigger gas supply surplus in Western Australia (WA) for most of 2026-30, according to its 2025 WA Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) report released today.

Aemo now projects that both gas supply and demand will be lower than previously expected in the period, because of cutbacks at major industrial users and downward revisions to its production forecasts. But its demand revisions were larger than its supply revisions, increasing its projected surplus.

The state's gas supply will exceed demand over most of that period, except in 2028 and 2030 (see table). It has increased its projections for the size of the surplus compared with those in its 2024 WA GSOO report.

Supply side

Aemo cut its WA gas supply forecast because of delays, gas reserve depletions, and decreased expected production at the Gorgon, Scarborough, and Pluto projects, it said.

The market operator previously expected Australia producer Strike Energy to open its 87 TJ/d (2.3mn m³/d) West Erregulla project in 2026. But Strike only aims to make a final investment decision on the project in July-December 2026, later than originally anticipated.

Strike's West Erregulla delay lowered WA's expected gas production by 52 TJ/d in 2027 and 63 TJ/d in 2028, Aemo said.

Aemo has also cut its production expectations for the Scarborough and Pluto gas fields by up to 24 TJ/d in 2030, it said. Australian developer Woodside Energy aims to process 7mn t/yr of Scarborough gas and 3mn t/yr of Pluto gas from early 2027, it said in November.

Workers building a 5mn t/yr LNG train at the Pluto LNG terminal plan to launch a strike on 6 January. Their current enterprise bargaining agreement with Australian engineering firm Bechtel will expire on 19 December, Argus understands.

Planned maintenance and lower utilisation at the Gorgon project contributed to a 16 TJ/d cut to Aemo's forecasts, it said. The project's owners — which include Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Osaka Gas, Tokyo Gas and Jera — will modify its three-train Gordon LNG terminal as part of a A$3bn ($1.98bn) project, it said in December.

Reserve downgrades and depletions at the Walyering, Beharra Springs, Macedon, and Varanus Island fields mostly account for the rest of the supply revisions, Aemo said. The Walyering and Beharra Springs field reserve downgrades cut Aemo's WA supply forecast by 5 TJ/d in 2026 and 23 TJ/d in 2029, it added.

Demand side

The closure of nickel mining and alumina refining operations cut Aemo's 2026-30 demand forecast, the operator said. But demand will still rise over that period, from 1,085 TJ/d in 2026 to 1,295 TJ/d, because of new mining and processing activity, it said.

US producer Alcoa opted to permanently close its 2.2mn t/yr Kwinana alumina refinery on 30 September, after it paused the site in July 2024. It has not announced a full closure timeline yet, Alcoa Australia president Elsabe Muller told Argus at the time.

Australian miner IGO has also paused its Forrestania and Cosmos nickel projects over recent years.

Multiple developers including Australian producers Iluka Resources, Cobalt Blue, and RZ Resources will develop critical mineral mining or processing projects in WA over the coming years.

By Avinash Govind