EU member states' adoption of the bloc's recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) and higher penalties for use of fossil marine fuels will boost demand for alternative bunkers in 2026.
FuelEU Maritime regulations will keep supporting demand, as in 2025, by requiring a 2pc cut in fuel greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through to 2029, rising to 6pc in 2030.
Shipping emissions will fall under the full scope of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) for the first time, including methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The wider ETS scope will raise costs for fuel oil and gasoil bunkers, and also for biofuels, which emit GHGs.
RED III rules, including maritime renewable fuel mandates, will shape where and what ships bunker. In northwest Europe, major EU port hubs in the Netherlands and Belgium are set to diverge in their treatment of waste-based biodiesel produced through transesterification and certified under EU RED rules. Used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome), the most common biodiesel for bunkering blends globally, will not be a mainstay of marine biodiesel blends in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub.
From January, waste-based biodiesel will count towards total obligated fuel volumes in Dutch ports. This will not apply in Belgium, which could allow vessels to bunker there at lower cost in renewable obligation terms.
There is also divergence between legislation governing shipping emissions. FuelEU Maritime, unlike some RED III transpositions, places no cap on fuels produced from RED Annex IX Part B feedstocks, including used cooking oil (UCO).
FuelEU allows shipowners flexibility on where they procure biofuels to meet their own requirements. Some Dutch suppliers said they will offer Ucome blends in the Netherlands if there is demand for FuelEU purposes, but with a premium to cover domestic RED III compliance.
Marine-specific mandates could also push renewable fuel bunkering to other locations and reduce appetite for blends with biodiesel produced using RED Annex IX Part A ‘advanced' feedstocks. Under RED II, supply of such blends generated tradeable renewable fuel tickets called HBE-Gs to count against broader transport mandates, adding value in what had been a non-obligated sector. B30 advanced Fame 0 dob ARA prices, which include a deduction for Dutch HBE-G ticket value, averaged a discount of about $118/t to B30 Ucome dob ARA prices for most of 2025.
Singapore eyes EU demand
Marine biodiesel bunkering demand in Singapore has risen steadily since FuelEU Maritime was introduced, overtaking Rotterdam sales in the third quarter of 2024.
Sales in Singapore totalled 1.16mn t in the first three quarters of 2025, more than double a year earlier. Rotterdam sales fell to 467,772t from 633,902t over the same period.
EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese-origin biodiesel, announced provisionally in July last year and later finalised, have driven competitive supply away from ARA ports, consolidating Singapore's leading position for renewable bunkers.
Chinese Ucome flows to Singapore remain strong. Exports nearly tripled to 84,024t in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the second quarter, according to China customs data. Shipments this year to October have already exceeded last year's total, reaching 180,122t compared with 173,340t in the whole of 2024.
B30 dob Singapore values averaged $732.58/t between 10 April and 3 December this year, compared with $792.90/t for B30 Ucome dob ARA over the same period.
