Marine fuel imports could continue declining next year as countries opt to ship elsewhere because of US President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
Global imports to the US are projected to decline by around 6.6pc in 2026, according to consultancy firm Oxford Economics. This includes an estimated 10.7pc decrease in shipments from Mexico and a 3.6pc drop in deliveries from Canada, Oxford Economics said.
Imports to the US have totaled around 26.71mn metric tonnes (t) in 2025, a 11pc decline from 2024, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa. Mexico and Canada have seen the biggest drop in maritime shipments to the US this year.
Mexico posted the highest share of shipments to the US, at around 5.90mn t in 2025, Vortexa data show. But Mexico's shipments to the US dropped by about 29pc from about 8.32mn t in 2024.
Canadian shipments to the US dropped by about 18pc to 2.3mn t in 2025, according to Vortexa. Canada has had the fourth highest share of marine fuel shipments to the US in 2025.
A higher percentage of Mexican exports has gone to Singapore, from 8.1pc last year to 8.9pc in 2025, and to Morocco, from none to 1.8pc, according to Vortexa data. For Canada, a higher share of shipments has gone to Dutch Caribbean Island St Eustatius, rising from 10.2pc to 12.5pc in 2025, and to the Netherlands, up from 1.9pc last year to 2.5pc in 2025.
Currently, the US imposes a 25pc tariff on Mexican imports and a 35pc tariff on shipments from Canada. Goods that qualify under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement and energy commodities are exempted from the tariffs.
A ruling by the US Supreme Court overturning Trump's tariff actions could add volatility to marine fuel market activity, especially should the Trump administration pursue other avenues to implement its exclusionary trade policies.
The court held an appeal in November of this year and a decision on the case could come at anytime before June 2026.
