Mexico's state-owned Pemex will likely reduce its road fuel imports in 2026 as domestic refining output rises and government policy continues to prioritize Mexican energy sovereignty, even as operational challenges in the national refining system persist.
Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum in 2024 and 2025 has continued the policy goal of her predecessor, former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, to strengthen Pemex and boost the company's refined fuel production so the country can become less dependent on imports. The government's flagship Dos Bocas refinery, officially inaugurated in 2022, is projected to ramp up production next year, adding incremental volumes of gasoline and diesel to the domestic supply pool. Combined with ongoing upgrades at existing plants, these moves aim to curb reliance on fuel sourced from the US Gulf coast.
For January-October, Pemex produced about 552,000 b/d of gasoline and diesel, according to the most recent Pemex data, up by 5pc from 473,000 b/d for the same period one year earlier. One of the main factors in driving this uptick in production of refined fuels is the increasing ramp-up of the new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery. Olmeca produced 70,000 b/d of gasoline and 81,000 b/d of diesel in October, Pemex data show, making the refinery a significant contributor to Pemex's increased road fuels output in recent months.
Olmeca is not the only refinery boasting improved output. The 315,000 b/d Tula refinery has improved its gasoline and diesel yields this year while reducing fuel oil output, a shift driven by equipment upgrades, maintenance and a lighter crude slate — even before its long-delayed new coker unit starts. Rising throughput at the 330,000 b/d Salina Cruz refinery has also been a boon for the company. The two refineries used 66pc and 68pc of their capacity for crude throughput in October, figures at least 10 percentage points higher than Mexico's other five domestic refineries.
With this greater output, Pemex has decreased its reliance on imports. The company imported an average of 414,000 b/d of refined fuels from January-October, down by 22pc from 534,000 b/d for the same period one year prior, driven by significantly lower diesel imports. Diesel imports fell to 83,000 b/d during that time, down by 42pc from 143,000 b/d the year before.
Pemex faces ongoing difficulties
Yet the government's goal is not only to diminish fuel imports, it is to become entirely self-sufficient for gasoline and diesel.
In an energy-sector plan published on 22 December, Mexico's energy ministry says it aims to raise refinery throughput rates from the current average of 56pc to 80pc by 2030. But structural challenges mean this will be difficult for Pemex to achieve.
The company said in August it will reduce its official nameplate capacity from 1.615mn b/d to 1.4mn b/d to reflect ongoing reconfiguration efforts and compliance with environmental rules. Most of Pemex's refineries are more than 40 years old and were designed to process lighter crudes, which Pemex produces in declining volumes. Increasing utilization is difficult because of outdated infrastructure and mismatched crude specifications, market sources say.
The 285,000 b/d Minatitlan refinery, last modernized in 2003, and the 190,000 b/d Madero refinery, built in 1914, exemplify these challenges. Core equipment, such as coking units at Minatitlan, is not functioning properly, sources said.
Pemex's efforts to resolve operational issues are hampered by tight finances, with reported debt near $100bn at the end of the third quarter. Government support could trim this to $80bn by 2027, according to Moody's Ratings, but analysts see little room for further improvement. Significant investment would be needed to modernize the refining system, yet Pemex's integrated structure leaves future allocations for refining unclear.
The ramp-up at Olmeca has temporarily lifted Mexico's refining output and curbed imports, but persistent weaknesses at legacy plants remain a key barrier to fuel self-sufficiency. Without sustained investment, Pemex's refineries are likely to continue running at low rates, keeping Mexico reliant on imports despite its policy goals.
