Brazil cuts outlook for 2025-26 grain, oilseed crop

Brazil trimmed its outlook for the 2025-26 grain and oilseed crop in January but the crop is still set to reach a record of approximately 353.1mn metric tonnes (t), with soybean production leading yearly gains.

• National supply company Conab downgraded the outlook for the season by around 1.2mn t in January. The 2025-26 cycle's output is still set to be 0.3pc higher than the previous season's.
• The planted area estimate fell by 0.4pc to nearly 83.9mn hectares (ha) (838,000 km²), although the projection is up by 2.6pc from the prior cycle. Brazil sowed 81.7mn ha in the 2024-25 season. Higher soybean and corn acreage account for most of the yearly expansion.
• Average yields should total 4,212 kg/ha, slightly up from 4,210 kg/ha a month prior and 2.2pc below the prior cycle. The 2024-25 crop registered ideal weather conditions, which boosted yields.

Soybeans

• Brazil's 2025-26 soybean crop is expected to reach a record of 176.1mn t, a rise of 2.7pc from the 2024-25 season's volumes.
• January's forecast fell by 0.6pc — or 999,200t — from the prior outlook thanks to unfavorable weather conditions. Irregular rainfall and lower-than-expected volumes in regions of central-western Mato Grosso do Sul state, along with soil problems in parts of central-western Goias state, contributed to the reduction. The amount of rainfall in January-February will be essential for the crop, as most areas will be in their periods of highest water demand.
• Expected acreage fell by 0.5pc — or 263,000ha — to 48.7mn ha. Areas sown with soybeans should rise by 2.8pc from the last cycle, maintaining a growth trend in place for almost 20 years and supporting a record production outlook for the 2025-26 season.
• The estimate for yields fell slightly to 3,619 kg/ha from 3,620 kg/ha in December. That is down from 3,622 kg/ha in the 2024-25 cycle.

Corn

• Conab expects Brazil to produce around 138.9mn t of corn in 2025-26, comprising the first, second and third crops.
• Projected volumes slightly dropped by 11,900t from December and are 1.5pc down from the 2024-25 crop.
• The outlook for planted area remains at around 22.7mn ha, but the forecast is down by 13,800ha from December. The prior season's sowing covered 21.8mn ha.
• Average yields should total 6,114 kg/ha, slightly up from 6,111 kg/ha a month prior. That is 5.3pc less than a year earlier.
• The output outlook for 2025-26 summer corn crop — also known as the first crop — dropped by 11,800t and was 3.8pc above the 2024-25 first corn crop.
• Acreage was revised downwards by 13,800ha, but it remains estimated at around 4mn ha, a 6.8pc hike on the year.
• Yields are forecast slightly higher at 6,427 kg/ha, compared with 6,408 kg/ha a month prior. This marks a yearly drop of 2.8pc from the 2024-25 season.
• For the winter corn cycle — also known as the second crop — Conab projects that the 2025-26 crop will produce 110.5mn t, roughly stable from last month. Volumes are expected to fall by 2.4pc from last season.
• Yield estimates were at 6,105 kg/ha, flat from December and below the 6,496 kg/ha in the 2024-25 season.
• The planted area estimate is also stable at around 18.1mn ha. This is up by 3.8pc from acreage in the previous season.
• The third crop is expected to total 2.5mn t, a near 13pc drop from the 2024-25 crop. The planted area is estimated at 592,100ha, down by 7.4pc from the previous season, and the average yield estimate fell by 5.6pc to 4,241 kg/ha. Estimates were flat from a month prior.

Wheat, cotton lint

• Brazil's 2025 wheat production is estimated at approximately 7.9mn t. That is 1.1pc — or 87,800t — down from a month prior and is in line with the volumes produced in 2024 cycle.
• Yields are set to reach 3,219 kg/ha, behind last month's 3,257 kg/ha, and up from 2,579 kg/ha in the 2024 crop.
• Planted area should still total around 2.5mn ha, which is also below the nearly 3.1mn ha sowed in the prior cycle.
• Conab cut its projections for the 2025-26 cotton lint crop by 199,200t, with production set to reach 3.8mn t. That is down by 6.3pc from the 2024-25 cycle.
• Yields are set to reach 1,884 kg/ha, only a dip down from 1,885 kg/ha in December and below the 1,954 kg/ha in the 2024-25 crop.
• Planted area fell by 73,700ha and should total 2mn ha, which is 2.8pc below the sowed area in the prior cycle.

2025-26 soy exports to rise

• Brazil is set to export 111.8mn t of soybeans in the 2025-26 season, down by 214,200t from December's outlook. That is still up by 3.3pc from 108.2mn t in the previous crop. The decrease is supported by lower expected volumes.
• Soybean crushing for the season should total 60.5mn t, up by 1.2mn t from the previous month. This is up by 5.9pc from the 2024-25 crop.
• The January estimate for soybean meal is at 46.6mn t, up from 45.7mn t from the previous month. This is up by 5.9pc from around 44mn t in the 2024-25 season.
• Soybean oil production is estimated at 12.2mn t, up from 11.9mn t in December. This is up by 6.4pc from 11.4mn t in the previous cycle.
• Corn exports for the 2025-26 crop are stable from December's outlook at 46.5mn t. That is up from 40mn t in the previous cycle because of the higher grain supply expected for the season.
• Domestic consumption in the 2025-26 cycle is estimated at 94.6mn t, roughly stable from December and above the 90.6mn t in 2024-25, driven by the expansion of corn ethanol production.

By João Petrini