The US Department of Commerce will begin its review to potentially end antidumping and countervailing duty (CVD) orders on certain phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia in March 2026 after years of legal exchanges.
Moroccan fertilizer producer OCP and Russian fertilizer producers have been subject to countervailing duties on phosphate exports to the US since 2021, after US fertilizer producer Mosaic filed a petition with authorities alleging the two countries' phosphate imports materially injured the US market. But the upcoming review to determine if revoking the order would lead to reoccurring dumping or material injury opens the possibility of the duties' removal and a transformation in the US phosphate market.
The Commerce department in March 2021 imposed a 19.97pc duty on OCP, while Russian producers PhosAgro and EuroChem were subject to duties at 9.19pc and 47.05pc, respectively. But over the course of the last five years, those duties have been altered based on appeals and revisions.
In September 2024, Mosaic withdrew its 2023 duty review request against Morocco but did not rescind its request for a review into Russian phosphate import duties. This signaled a possible turning point for the US phosphate industry that later prompted OCP to note its readiness to return to the US, but the following month Commerce raised the final 2022 CVD rate against Morocco, sparking doubts about the return of certain OCP phosphates until they were entirely duty free.
But the lack of Moroccan and Russian phosphate in the US fertilizer industry and its impact on fertilizer prices has not gone unnoticed by US lawmakers. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) stated during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in October 2025 that the removal of CVDs against Moroccan phosphate would immediately ease farmer input costs.
"This review will obviously be very impactful," one trader said. "Currently the majority of US phosphate sourcing is from east of the Suez, and having the return of the two leading producers west of the Suez would create more market competition."
In addition to not having access to Russian or Moroccan supply, the US has had to pay higher freight costs from more distant origins, such as Saudi Arabia and Australia. It takes approximately 15-20 days for a vessel to depart Jorf Lasfar, Morocco, and arrive to New Orleans, while it takes about 35-40 days for vessels that leave Ras Al Khair, Saudi Arabia to reach the US port.
The Commerce department is obligated to conduct sunset reviews no later than five years after the antidumping or CVD order is issued, where following the review's initiation the US International Trade Commission (ITC) will set the review schedule and publish information in a Federal Register notice. Relevant parties will be able to file responses discussing the effects of revoking the order under review, and if responses are considered adequate then the ITC usually will complete the full five-year review within 360 days of the start date.
