Australian bulk handler GrainCorp expects to export less grain in the financial year ending 30 September 2026 in part due to challenging market conditions that are slowing grower selling and pressuring export margins.
Exports are expected to fall to 5.5mn-6.5mn t in 2025-26 from 7mn t a year earlier because of oversupply in global grain markets, low prices and slow grower selling. These market conditions are reducing export margins to multi-year lows, the bulk handler said on 2 February.
Despite strong production in 2025-26 in Australia's east coast, where GrainCorp's network is located, global oversupply and low prices "reduced incentives for growers to deliver grain to market", weighing on margins from grain handled this year.
GrainCorp expects receivals to drop to 11mn-12mn t from 13.3mn t a year earlier, maintaining its forecast from mid-December 2025. Winter crop production in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland is less than 3pc lower on the year at 31.2mn t in 2025-26, according to the Australia's official agricultural ministry.
Australia's exporters have been hobbled by the sharp rise in the Australian dollar, which briefly neared $0.71 last week and remains at around three-year highs. Further currency strengthening could weigh on sales and slow exports.
Export data for December 2025 will be released later this week on 5 February and provide insight on volumes moved through GrainCorp's seven port terminals since the start of the October-September marketing year.
