Cold weather in Germany is lifting heating oil demand early in the year, while diesel sales are lagging behind 2025 levels. The divergence is also visible in consumer stock levels.
German spot heating oil volumes reported to Argus rose by about 20pc on the year in January. The sharp increase in demand reflects exceptionally cold weather this winter, traders said. Temperatures averaged -0.7°C in January 2026 — 1.6°C below the 1991-2020 average, according to the German Weather Service.
By contrast, spot diesel sales fell by almost 20pc on the year. Weakness in the wider German economy has reduced road freight activity, while seasonal slowdowns in agriculture and construction has further limited diesel use.
These demand trends are reflected in Argus MDX end-user stock data. Heating oil stocks were slightly below year-earlier levels in the last week of January, despite higher spot buying, underscoring the strong heating demand early in 2026.
Diesel stocks were slightly above levels at the end of January 2025, despite comparatively low spot purchases. This points to soft diesel demand and follows heavier stockbuilding at the end of 2025 than in previous year, as consumers accelerated buying ahead of sharp price rises driven by higher CO2 levy costs and GHG quotas.
