Rising volumes of heavy sour Venezuelan crude will not compete with Brazilian grades because they cater to different markets, panelists said at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas, today.
In the short term, less than 300,000 b/d of Venezuela crude will head to the US while Brazil will keep sending barrels worldwide, mainly to Asia, said PetroChina International Trading's vice president of crude Alipio Ferreira.
"It makes a lot of sense for American refiners to buy this," Ferreira said.
The Venezuelan crude will compete with other grades including Western Canadian Select (WCS), and crudes from Mexico, Ecuador and Colombia, said state-controlled Petrobras' global crude oil manager Fernando Colares Nogueira on the sidelines of the conference.
More Venezuelan heavy sour crude is hitting the global market after trading firms Trafigura and Vitol were approved by the US government to market unsanctioned Venezuelan oil following the US capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January.
More recently, the US lifted sanctions on Venezuela's oil exports, with caveats prohibiting sales to Cuba, business deals involving many Chinese companies and oil-for-debt arrangements. The lifting of sanctions will allow Venezuela's state-owned PdV to directly sell cargoes to eligible buyers abroad.
Brazil is the sixth-largest oil producer, with output increasing by about 400,000 b/d in 2025, part of a boom in crude production in Latin America that will continue, Nogueira said.
Most of Brazil's exports will continue to go to Asia though the end of the decade, Ferreira said.
Growing supply from Brazil and Argentina could also lead to an increase in co-loading cargoes with crude from the two countries going to China, Ferreira said.
Petrobras has already co-loaded crude from the two countries on a very large crude carrier (VLCC) — one time late last year and once early in 2026, Ferreira said. The co-loading involves a ship-to-ship transfer.
Argentina sent a few cargoes of light sweet Medanito crude to Asia-Pacific at the start of this year as producers try to expand the grade's market in the region. Only four Medanito cargoes headed to Asia-Pacific in 2024, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa.
The growing number of shipments to Asia come as a consortium of eight Argentinian producers build a new oil pipeline, the 271-mile Vaca Muerta Sur, connecting the Vaca Muerta shale fields, from where Medanito is produced, to the Punta Colorada port. The new port will handle VLCCs. The lack of VLCC loading has been one of the biggest bottlenecks for expanding Medanito's reach to Asian markets.
Currently, draft limitations cap Argentina exports to a maximum 800,000 bl on Suezmaxes or Aframaxes, which makes sales to Asia-Pacific mostly unfeasible.
