The price of urea barges sold at New Orleans (Nola) surged higher today and over the weekend in response to the conflict between US and Israeli forces and Iran, because of the risk posed to global urea supplies.
Barges at Nola traded roughly $50-80/st, or 11-17pc, higher on Monday compared with trade at $470/st fob Nola on 28 February. Barges loading in the second half of March transacted from $520-550/st fob Nola on Monday morning.
Trade also occurred on 28 February, the same day the US and Israel launched its attacks. A March loading barge transacted at $495/st fob Nola, second-half March barges from $490-505/st fob and first-half April volumes from $487-492/st fob.
The conflict presents a major risk to US urea supplies, especially ahead of the spring planting season when the bulk of urea applications occur. Vessels loading on Monday in the Middle East would arrive in mid-April. March and April represent the largest-volume months of urea imports in a given July-June fertilizer year.
If shipments from the Middle East are delayed or disrupted, the US would lose a critical source of urea, likely crunching supply and laying the groundwork for upward price volatility. Middle Eastern producers of urea so far have suspended offers and are grappling with shipping complications in the strait of Hormuz.
US urea imports from July through February totaled 2.35mn t, leading year-earlier levels by 5pc and the five-year average by 1pc, based on Argus estimates and US Census Bureau data. But the US ended the last fertilizer year with abnormally low inventories and lost more supply than usual to planned production plant turnarounds, increasing its need for seaborne shipments.
The Middle East accounted for 28pc of US urea imports in 2025 and the region is the world's largest urea exporter, shipping around 20mn t/yr, 35pc of global seaborne trade, of which Iran accounts for about a quarter.
